The global commodity landscape in October 2025 is defined by a paradox: Price firmness persists despite signs of persistent softness in China's core industrial demand, a complexity driven by China’s strategic policy and geopolitical shifts.

In industrial metals (iron ore, steel, copper), the continued slowdown in China's property sector overshadows demand. However, price stability is supported by government investment in green infrastructure and consumption in other regions. The debate centers on whether the current price floor is sustainable.

The energy sector is heavily influenced by China’s priority on national energy security. Substantial crude oil stockpiling throughout the year is absorbing significant volumes of global supply growth, a mechanism that lessens the expected downward pressure on oil prices derived purely from supply levels.

In agricultural commodities, policy's impact is stark: China imported no soybeans from the United States in September 2025, marking the first complete cessation of purchases for that month in seven years. This sharp deviation highlights how strategic decisions and geopolitical tensions are directly influencing crucial agricultural trade flows.

Across all segments, this backdrop of uncertain domestic demand is overlaid by a shifting geopolitical landscape. Regional conflicts, sanctions and trade barriers drive intense, non-linear price volatility. These external, non-commercial events are increasingly paramount, prompting market participants to incorporate political and logistical risk into their valuation models. Consequently, price strength potentially tied to China's strategic purchases requires elevated monitoring, with many forecasts pointing to non-fundamental dynamics as the critical movers shaping the final quarter of 2025.

The livestock sector, particularly the cattle complex, remains defined by a multi-year cyclical trend of record-low inventory numbers driving record-high market prices for both Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle contracts, making supply-driven inflation a primary theme for the final quarter of 2025. The market’s need to manage risk against these unprecedented price levels has led to historic levels of activity in the derivatives markets, indicating a broad consensus that volatility and price risk remain elevated. This was evidenced by the significant milestone recorded on October 2, 2025, when the Live Cattle complex (futures and options) saw open interest exceed 955,000 contracts – a new record. Furthermore, hedging activity has been particularly pronounced in the options market, where September 2025 recorded high average open interest for Live Cattle options (527,000 contracts) and Feeder Cattle options (over 525,000 contracts), underscoring the extensive use of these tools for producers and processors seeking price protection and managing high input costs as the cattle cycle tightens.

The elevated prices observed in 2025 are structurally supported by one of the smallest U.S. cattle herds in decades. Years of cyclical pressures, including high feed costs and persistent drought conditions across key grazing regions, compelled producers to liquidate breeding stock rather than retain them for expansion. This structural constraint presents a classic "cow cycle" bottleneck: Record profits are signaling a desperate need to expand the herd, but the long biological cycle (two to three years from breeding heifer to market-ready steer) means supplies are critically slow to respond. With U.S. beef production forecast to decline further through 2026, the market is primarily focused on price rationing the constrained supply against surprisingly resilient domestic consumer demand. Imports (particularly from Australia and Brazil) are rising to meet the demand for lean beef, but the scarcity of domestic supply ensures that all segments of the complex – from the pasture to the processing plant – remain operating under maximum pressure and heightened financial risk.

Precious metals markets have been particularly active. We’ve seen Gold (GC) futures trade above the $4,000 per ounce level, while Silver (SI) futures recently crossed the $50 per ounce mark. This price action stems from a range of factors, including inflation concerns and strong demand for hard assets, which underscores the importance of effective risk management. CME Group markets were front and center of this price rise, with the Metals complex reaching an all-time daily volume record of 2.8M contracts on Friday, October 17, 2025. This record activity was significantly driven by the product suite of smaller denominated Precious Metals contracts, including a record 1.26M contracts traded in Micro Gold (MGC) futures and 200K contracts traded in 1-Ounce Gold (1OZ) futures on that day.

Just days after hitting these new milestones, the metals rally experienced a significant pullback as improved trade outlook and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on the safe-haven tailwinds that previously drove demand for hard assets like gold and silver. What’s next for these metals? Market participants can use futures and options to hedge risk in periods of volatility and beyond.

The approaching winter is once again placing the global energy complex under intense scrutiny, with market attention firmly focused on the supply and demand fundamentals for a key seasonal commodity: Natural Gas (NG).

For Natural Gas (NG), the market enters the 2025 – 2026 heating season with a healthy supply cushion. U.S. working gas in storage is comfortably above both last year's levels and the five-year average, supported by near-record domestic dry gas production. This robust supply has kept current prices in check; however, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) still forecasts a significant price jump, projecting the Henry Hub spot price to rise to approximately $4.10/MMBtu by January 2026, as structural demand from growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports links the domestic market to stronger global prices. This tension between ample domestic supply and strong export demand, coupled with the ever-present wild card of winter weather severity, is driving the notable increase in market participation, demonstrated by a 10.8% rise in ADV and a nearly 4% increase in open interest compared to October 2024.

To precisely manage the short-term price risk driven by market-moving events like weekly inventory reports, weather shifts or geopolitical developments, traders can turn to Weekly Energy options on benchmarks including liquid Natural Gas options, which offer daily expirations.