In this report

YEAR IN REVIEW

Global uncertainty drives demand for risk management

2025 has been a period defined by both geopolitical complexity and market innovation, pushing participants across Energy, Metals and Agriculture to seek more precise and liquid tools for risk management. The consistent theme across all three complexes is the deepening commitment of market participants, evidenced by rising open interest (OI) and specialized product adoption.

The U.S. Gulf Coast has cemented its position as a global crude oil price setter, a trend reflected in the record engagement with its futures contracts. The Gulf Coast Grades futures (HTT/WTT) saw their average open interest (AOI) rise to a substantial 697,000 contracts year to date, marking a 9% increase year over year (YoY). Furthermore, the combined 2025 average daily volume (ADV) stands at 14.9K, with a particularly strong October reaching 16.5K ADV. This deepening liquidity directly impacts global pricing mechanisms.

Simultaneously, the Metals space has seen a structural shift toward managing near-term volatility, with Weekly options ADV across Gold, Silver and Copper soaring from 7K in 2020 to over 30K in 2025 YTD. Meanwhile, the Agricultural sector continues to focus on value chain optimization, with specialized products like the Soybean Oilshare futures contract (OSF) attracting increasing participation. This clear and substantial growth across diverse derivatives underscores that market participants are actively seeking instruments to navigate a fragmented and uncertain pricing environment.


MARK YOUR CALENDARS

Natural Gas options see 10% growth as LNG and winter volatility drive record hedging

The winter heating season has driven significant engagement in the Natural Gas options market, fueled by heightened volatility and structural demand from U.S. LNG exports. Hedgers are actively managing price uncertainty as U.S. dry gas production is projected to average 108.5 BCFD this winter and Henry Hub prices are forecast to average over $4.00/MMBtu. Market data from early November 2025 demonstrates this deep commitment: OI is up 10.84% (2025 vs. 2024), signifying a substantial expansion of the overall market size. Concurrently, ADV is up 9.79%, indicating a significant increase in market liquidity and short-term trading interest as participants prepare for the volatile withdrawal season.

This volatility, especially the potential for backwardation (near-month futures trading higher than back-months), has driven remarkable growth in calendar spread options (CSOs). CSOs are a vital, capital-efficient tool for storage operators and commercial firms seeking to efficiently hedge the differential between two futures delivery months. By allowing participants to lock in the profit from the seasonal spread – buying in summer and selling in winter – CSOs solidify their role as a critical component of risk management in a market where basis spreads are expected to remain volatile.


HOLY COW

Dairy futures hit record highs, driven by options and depth

The Dairy futures and options market has seen a powerful trend of renewed engagement and structural growth, setting several new records for commitment and liquidity. The complex achieved a record OI across all contracts of 384,487 as of early November 2025, supported by overall volume that is up a notable 23% YTD. This growth culminated in a record monthly volume in September 2025, with an ADV of 9,514 contracts. Specific products highlighted this momentum, including Butter options, which reached a record ADV of 685, and Class IV Milk, which hit a combined ADV record of 1,144 in the same record-setting month.

The market's structural expansion is heavily skewed toward the options complex, which saw a remarkable 45% YTD volume increase, significantly outpacing the 7% growth in futures volume and underscoring the shift toward efficient, flexible risk control among hedgers. This increased liquidity is building substantial market depth, with the total OI across the complex representing the equivalent of approximately 40.8 billion lbs. of product. This significant size is attracting more buyside interest, as contracts like Class III Milk are increasingly valued for being largely uncorrelated to mainstream Agricultural products, thus providing a valuable tool for portfolio diversification to manage swift shifts in the oil-meal spread value.


TEST YOUR METAL

Short-dated Metals options gain traction

The Precious Metals complex is witnessing a structural shift in how participants manage short-term price volatility: the explosive growth of Weekly options.

Weekly options, which offer short-term leverage and granular risk control, have seen a surge in popularity, enabling participants to react quickly to major events like central bank rate decisions and geopolitical tensions. The overall Weekly options ADV across Gold, Silver and Copper has soared from 7K in 2020 to over 30K in 2025 YTD. This dramatic increase suggests a clear market preference for instruments designed for managing near-term exposures and capitalizing on event risk.

Silver Weekly options have experienced the most significant surge, leaping from nearly 400 contracts/day to over 3,500 in 2025. This robust growth may be tied to Silver's dual role as a monetary metal and a critical industrial metal, making it highly sensitive to macroeconomic and manufacturing news.

Gold Weekly options have also seen strong success, growing by over 4x compared to their 2020 ADV, reflecting persistent demand for short-dated instruments to manage risk tied to inflation and global political uncertainty.


Insights

A supply shortage in feedstocks could be exacerbated in the European Union (EU) by growing demand stoked in large part by stricter environmental policies in the region. 


While the USDA reported record national production and yield for U.S. corn this year, farmers across Illinois experienced carrying and mixed results in terms of crop quality.


The U.S. is poised to expand natural gas infrastructure and LNG exports. How could this move contribute to price changes and demand for Henry Hub futures? 


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All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.

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