Fertilizer is the primary input for producers, and while prices are down from pandemic peaks, they remain elevated. This year, producers seem to be really feeling that cost in their pockets. 

“Fertilizer, fuel and crop protection products remain stubbornly expensive,” said Elliott. "Machinery, seed, insurance, land and interest costs all are at elevated levels. Farmers are primarily hunkered down, attempting to avoid any expense that is not fundamental to growing the next crop.”

Elliott believes the low price-high cost environment is approaching that of the famed 1980s, when the plight of the American farmer rose to crisis levels. At that time, a combination of high interest rates, plummeting land values and low commodity prices resulted in many farmers going bankrupt. 

“Corn, soy and wheat prices have fallen 30% to 50% from their 2022 highs,” Elliott said. “For many producers, profit margins have turned negative for two to three years running.”

These conditions have some farmers across the state shifting their marketing approach. Raben says his family typically sells their corn to a grain elevator along the Ohio River in Shawneetown, IL, where it is then transported to the U.S. Gulf for export.

“In light of the low prices however, this year we will store as much as we can, hoping for better prices in the future,” he said.

While good yields can provide temporary relief for individual producers’ pockets, a huge national crop puts downward pressure on prices, leaving many regions with excess supply. And corn yields continue to trend higher. 

“Agriculture’s low price dilemma is based on some pretty basic concepts,” Elliott said. “Improving genetics and technology have allowed farmers to become more efficient and productive – growing more with less in spite of the growing environment of the year. We continue to create a bigger pile than we consume annually."

As one of the top corn suppliers globally, U.S. trade relations with other countries can have a significant impact on farmers. China implemented retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products like corn earlier this year, though they were recently suspended in November.

Despite trade challenges reshaping international demand, it’s been a record year for trade. Raben noted the unique chemical profile of U.S. corn as a key differentiating point, with greater starch extractability potentially supporting higher prices and demand in emerging markets like India and South Africa.   

“While I believe that markets will naturally facilitate the movement of products, several factors, including competition, freight costs and government policies, can hinder our ability to sell corn effectively,” said Raben. "It’s true that Illinois corn farmers need more demand to overcome the current economic downturn, but it's equally true that this has been a record-setting year for international corn sales." 

He added: “Maintenance and new opportunities for overseas sales are still critical, but they can’t be the only solution to our demand problem.”

Farmers across the state watch biofuel policy closely, and producers consistently identify accommodative national biofuel policy as necessary to fill gaps in demand arising from increasing supply. 

“There’s only so much corn we can feed to livestock and there’s only so much demand for corn overseas,” said Leigh. “The third leg of the stool for corn crop usage is domestic biofuel production. Biofuels have been the driver for American farmer profitability for the last 20 years.”

Raben concurs: “Rather than solely pursuing international opportunities, it is crucial to assess our domestic markets where we have the capacity to produce more ethanol and boost fuel blends.”

Leigh points to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a bright spot for future demand, in addition to higher gasoline blending thresholds in the form of the national proliferation of E15.