In this report
TEETERING TARIFFS
GROWING YOUR PORTFOLIO
- Micro Ag futures making major waves
- A more precise way to hedge: introducing 10-Ton Urea U.S. Gulf futures and options
NATURAL GAS, EXTRAORDINARY SHIFTS
GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY
TEETERING TARIFFS
Tariff tumult leads to major market moves
While tariffs have become a persistent feature in economic headlines, their real-world implementation is highly nuanced, creating significant ripple effects across commodity sectors. A new wave of tariffs impacted approximately 90 countries starting August 7, with some rates climbing as high as 50%, intensifying market uncertainty.
China, a cornerstone market for American agricultural products, remains central to the ongoing trade uncertainty. More than halfway through August, the U.S. has yet to record a single soybean sale to China for the current or upcoming marketing year– a stark contrast to the 2023-2024 marketing year when 22% of the U.S. soybean crop was exported to China (China accounted for 54% of U.S. soybean exports). This absence of export sales coupled with trade uncertainty coincided with a highly active day in Agricultural options trading on August 12, which saw the second largest volume of the year at 891,391 contracts and open interest reaching 4,799,682. This surge in trading followed a surprising WASDE report released the same day, which forecast an additional 752 million bushels of corn for 2025 U.S. production.
Global trade uncertainty and tariffs are significantly impacting the metals sector, particularly across gold and copper. The copper market had anticipated broad tariffs in late July; however, the unexpected exemption of raw forms like cathodes and ores triggered the largest single-day selloff in copper's history on July 31, as traders unwound their positions. The gold market also faced a bout of speculative whiplash: the initial announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss imports was later clarified by the White House, calming initial market volatility.
Uncertainty is also fueling a surge in activity within the energy markets. The average daily volume (ADV) for Crude Oil Weekly options jumped 41% in August compared to July 2025, reflecting a growing demand for short-term hedging instruments. With OPEC meetings scheduled monthly through the end of the year, the potential for continued volatility remains high.
Geopolitical strategy is now a primary driver of volatility across all three major commodity sectors. The resulting price fluctuations are critical, directly influencing production costs, consumer prices and broader inflation expectations.
GROWING YOUR PORTFOLIO
Micro Ag futures making major waves
The Agricultural futures market is experiencing a significant shift with the growing popularity of the Micro Ag futures complex, offering traders a more precise and capital-efficient way to participate in key commodity markets. These innovative contracts are proving to be a game-changer for individual traders, smaller firms and those looking to fine-tune their exposure to the dynamic world of agriculture.
The Micro Ag futures complex consists of five products: Micro Corn (MZC), Micro Soybean (MZS), Micro Chicago Wheat (MZW), Micro Soybean Meal (MZM) and Micro Soybean Oil (MZL). These products are 1/10 the size of the underlying standard-size contract and are financially settled to the same standard-size contracts, with both daily settlement and final settlement on option expiration day. Micro Ags have a larger tick increment, but can settle at a non-tradable tick that matches the underlying big contract.
Implied spreads between the standard and the Micro products are available, giving market participants an opportunity to access the underlying markets in a more capital-efficient way. In the last 20 weeks, ADV of Micro Ag futures exceeded 2.7K lots and the latest OI achieved about 4K positions. Soybean oil, soybean and corn dominate the volume, on average accounting for 35%, 28% and 23% of ADV, respectively.
A more precise way to hedge: introducing 10-Ton Urea U.S. Gulf futures and options
Navigating today's highly dynamic agricultural markets requires a strategic approach to managing the volatility of input costs. The unpredictable price swings of key fertilizers, especially urea, can directly and substantially affect your overall profitability.
Enter the 10-Ton Urea U.S. Gulf (MVF) futures contract. Meticulously designed for a broader spectrum of market participants, this more compact, financially settled contract delivers a highly accessible and capital-efficient method for hedging your exposure to the U.S. Gulf's granular urea market, all without the substantial capital commitments of traditional, larger contracts. You can effectively shield your profit margins from unfavorable price shifts, achieve greater budgetary certainty and make forward-looking business decisions with enhanced confidence.
NATURAL GAS, EXTRAORDINARY SHIFTS
Traders turn to the screen: the reshaping of Natural Gas options trading
The market is seeing profoundly enhanced liquidity and efficiency in the Natural Gas options space driven by on-screen electronic trading, the growth of request for quote (RFQ) systems and traders gaining a competitive edge from complex data analytics.
Read how these three advancements are providing the necessary tools and capabilities to navigate the complexities of the energy markets efficiently and effectively.
Golden opportunity
1-Ounce Gold futures surge drives volumes to all-time highs
The 1-Ounce Gold (1OZ) futures contract is experiencing unprecedented levels of activity. This robust performance highlights the growing importance of gold as a key asset for hedging and speculation in today's dynamic financial landscape.
On August 8, 1OZ futures achieved a new daily volume record, hitting 20,900 contracts. This single-day peak underscores a broader trend of heightened trading. Looking at the month of August so far, the contract is firmly on track to establish a new monthly record, with the ADV currently standing at 17,400 contracts month-to-date (MTD). Open interest also reflects this strong momentum, reaching 2,500 positions MTD.
The surge in 1OZ futures activity comes as market participants increasingly look to precious metals as a barometer of economic sentiment and a potential safe haven. This contract provides a capital-efficient avenue for traders to gain exposure to gold price movements, enabling both short-term tactical plays and longer-term strategic positioning.
Insights
As global wheat trade expands, the first futures are trading in Romanian and Bulgarian wheat.
Despite a period of lower prices, long-term demand for lithium and other battery metals appears strong.
India’s rapidly increasing energy demands have significant global implications, potentially benefiting U.S. oil and natural gas markets and the growth of the NYMEX WTI and Henry Hub benchmarks.
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All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.