CME Group FedWatch

    Our FedWatch tool currently updates only at the end of each day.  An intra-day automatically updating version is being prepared.  Probabilities are estimated based yesterday’s Fed Funds Futures settlement prices and effective Fed Funds rate.

The CME Group FedWatch tool lets you quickly gauge the market’s expectations of potential changes to the Fed Funds target rate.

The CME Group FedWatch is based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, which have long been used to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy.

  • FOMC meetings are matched with the corresponding 30-Day Fed Funds Futures contract.
  • Probabilities of possible Fed Funds Target Rates are not observable and they are estimated based on the post-meeting Fed Fund Futures contract price assuming that the rate hike is 0.25% (25 basis points) and that the effective Fed Funds rate rises by a like amount.
  • The probabilities are shown associated with the upper end of the potential range for the Fed Funds rate.
  • Probability of a Rate Hike is calculated by adding the probabilities of all target rate levels of 0.50 or higher.
  • Probability of no change in rates is given by the 0.25 bar which is the upper bound of the current target range.  The effective Fed Funds rate typically trades somewhere in the middle of the target range.

Learn more about Fed Fund Futures Probability Methodology


30 Day Fed Funds Futures Top Volume Contract

Product Code Contract Last Change Chart Open High Low Globex Vol
30 Day Federal Funds Futures ZQX5 NOV 2015 NOV 2015 99.730 -0.005 Show Price Chart 99.730 99.730 99.730 928

All market data contained within the CME Group website should be considered as a reference only and should not be used as validation against, nor as a complement to, real-time market data feeds.

Contact Us

For technical questions, please contact:

Research_InterestRate@cmegroup.com

For media inquiries, please contact:

Michael Shore
Alex Gorbokon