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Understanding the CME Group FedWatch
See a video explanation of the CME Group FedWatch tool
The CME Group FedWatch tool lets you quickly gauge the market’s expectations of potential changes to the Fed Funds target rate. The CME Group FedWatch is based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, which have long been used to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy.
  • FOMC meetings are matched with the corresponding 30-Day Fed Funds Futures contract.
  • Probabilities of possible Fed Funds Target Rates are calculated based on the post-meeting Fed Fund Futures contract price.
  • Probability of Rate Hike is calculated by adding the probabilities of all target rate levels of 0.50 or higher.
Fed Funds Futures Probability Tree Calculator
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