The CME FedWatch Tool analyzes the probability of FOMC rate moves for upcoming meetings. Using 30-Day Fed Fund futures pricing data, which have long been relied upon to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy, the tool visualizes both current and historical probabilities of various FOMC rate change outcomes for a given meeting date. The tool also shows the Fed’s “Dot Plot,” which reflects FOMC members’ expectations for the Fed target rate over time.
1a: Across the top, each tab corresponds to a scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC). The nearest meeting is on the far left and is the default selection.
1b: After selecting a meeting date at the top of the CME FedWatch Tool, the tool will display data on the likelihood of various target rate outcomes for that date in the “Current” tab. These probabilities are based on trading activity in the Fed Fund futures contract corresponding with the meeting date.
1c: The table will show the selected meeting date’s probabilities for the current period as well as one day, one week and one month ago.
1d: In the “Compare” tab, the probabilities for each potential target rate outcome for the selected meeting date are visualized as of the current period, and as of one day, one week and one month ago.
1e: This provides a complete view of the current probabilities across all scheduled meetings and possible outcomes. Additionally, the corresponding Fed Fund futures prices are listed.
The box labeled “Historical” on the left side of the tool shows the historical probability of various target rate outcomes for the selected meeting date, with data going back a full year. In the “Downloads” section of this box, excel files with the raw historical probability data for each meeting date are available for downloading.
The Fed Dot Plot, which has long reflected FOMC members’ expectations for the Fed target rate over time, is available in a chart on the CME FedWatch Tool. Each dot represents an FOMC member’s projected target rate for a given year, with the exception of the red dot, which represents the target rate implied by the year-end Fed Fund futures price for that year. Blue dots represent the FOMC members’ median rate projection. This data is also available in table format in the “Table” tab.
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