In this report
PARADOXICAL PUSHES
‘TIL THE COWS COME HOME
- Extreme U.S. weather drives nat gas traders to the global benchmark
- WTI Crude Oil Weekly options provide flexible hedging amid shifting energy landscapes
METAL MANIA
WINTER IS COMING
WINTER IS COMING
NEW YEAR, NEW STRATEGY
Global uncertainty drives demand for short-term risk management
Risk management strategies are undergoing a transformation: There’s been a structural shift in the marketplace as traders increasingly reach for precision tools to navigate a macro environment that feels like it changes every hour, not just every month.
Rising demand for short-term exposure to benchmark commodities drove record-breaking trading in Monday – Friday options throughout 2025. This wasn't just a spike; it was a fundamental change in market participation.
With expirations now available every single business day across all major benchmark commodities, traders have gained a newfound level of precision. Whether it’s extreme weather, a sudden geopolitical flare up or a critical USDA report, the market now has a way to express a view or hedge a position with pinpoint accuracy.
Gold (GC) and WTI Crude Oil have been the undisputed leaders of this movement. The average daily volume (ADV) and open interest (OI) for Weekly options have scaled new heights, reflecting a market that is increasingly hungry for flexibility.
FUELING RECORDS
Extreme U.S. weather drives nat gas traders to the global benchmark
The natural gas market is navigating a period of extraordinary activity driven by a displaced polar vortex and a tightening global supply-demand balance. As U.S. heating demand nears record levels, the Natural Gas complex has become the epicenter of energy risk management.
This month, Natural Gas futures and options ADV topped 1.3 million contracts. Options set back-to-back single-day records, peaking at 849K contracts on January 21, with the clear shift towards electronic execution. On-screen ADV for options strategies reached over 266K contracts – 620K options traded on screen on January 20 alone.
The launch of daily expiries for Henry Hub Natural Gas Weekly options – which hit the market one year ago – have been a game changer for managing this month's volatility. Natural Gas Weekly options saw over 15K contracts trade on January 20, with January ADV reaching nearly 4K contracts.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly options provide flexible hedging amid shifting energy landscapes
2025 was a watershed year for the Energy complex, with total Energy options volume averaging 500K contracts traded daily. In a year where uncertainty remained certain, traders utilized Weekly options to stay agile. Crude Oil Weekly options saw their ADV reach 23K contracts, an 11% increase over 2024.
In the year ahead, the introduction of Venezuelan oil into the global marketplace is expected to be a primary driver of price fluctuations, further cementing the necessity of Weekly options for tactical risk management.
METALS MISMATCH
Record gold demand meets a copper supply squeeze
2025 saw gold being rewritten as the cornerstone of the modern portfolio. The yellow metal breached the historic $3,000/oz mark earlier in 2025 and continued its ascent, with spot prices hitting all-time highs near $4,560/oz by year end.
- The driver: This perfect storm for gold was fueled by central banks – which now hold a larger share of gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996 – and massive inflows into gold-backed ETFs. Meanwhile, copper stands out as the tightest of the industrial metals. Supply disruptions and low inventories have met a surge in demand from data center construction and the global energy transition.
- The strategy: Daily Monday – Friday expirations in Gold options volume has surged, reflecting a shift from buy and hold to active volatility management. Traders are using these short-dated contracts to manage the gaps between Fed meetings and inflation data releases. In the industrial space, the focus has shifted to Copper (HX) options as a way to play the forecast market deficit, which many believe could lead to a significant supply squeeze in 2026.
HEDGE THE HARVEST
Weekly Agricultural options can help protect profits in an era of high supply
The Ags complex has been a story of abundance versus emerging demand. Global grain markets entered 2026 well supplied following record-setting harvests in the U.S., Brazil and Argentina.
- Fundamental landscape: Corn and wheat prices have been weighed down by the relatively high U.S. stocks-to-use ratios. For soybeans, exports are forecasted to be lowest since 2012 – 2013, but a positive backdrop arrived via EPA's supportive policies to increase the production of biomass-based diesel with the Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO). This has provided a much-needed tailwind for the Soybean Oil (ZL) market, with Soybean (ZS) finding support.
- The power of precision: While traditional monthly hedges remain a cornerstone of long-term price protection, today’s high-supply environment has made Weekly Agricultural options a vital complementary tool for a robust portfolio. These Friday-expiring options allow producers to overlay targeted protection during high-impact windows, such as WASDE report releases.
By integrating weeklies alongside monthly positions, farmers can surgically manage the specific volatility of data events without over-committing their long-term capital. This layered approach provides the best of both worlds: maintaining a solid foundation for the season while using short-term tools to defend against sudden price floors or to keep the door open for unexpected weather rallies.
ELEMENTAL OSCILLATIONS
Commodity volatility hits three-year high
The Commodity CVOL Index has climbed to its highest level in three years, propelled by outsized volatility in Natural Gas and Precious Metals. The index surpassed significant historical resistance levels in January 2026, marking a period of intense market turbulence. This surge is largely attributed to a "melt-up" in the metals market – with Gold prices nearing $5,000 an ounce and Silver hitting generational highs – alongside extreme price action in Natural Gas driven by severe winter weather forecasts and record storage withdrawals. As shown in the accompanying chart, the Energy and Metals CVOL components have spiked sharply, reflecting heightened risk expectations and a rush into safe-haven assets amidst geopolitical uncertainties.
Insights
Platinum prices have soared in 2025 amid a supply deficit that could last a few more years. Recycling activity is growing, however, and could help cushion the shortfall.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth is expected to continue, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. With the correlation between oil price and the stock market, how might AI impact prices?
Global wheat production is forecast to hit a record high of 808.6 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025/26, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), but this high headline figure masks mixed production across the world.
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All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.