Countdown to the FOMC

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Stay up-to-date with the latest FOMC statements and count down to the next FOMC meeting while staying aware of when the Fed might raise the Fed Funds target rate with the CME Group FedWatch tool.

FedWatch Tool

Based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which have long been used to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy, the CME Group FedWatch tool allows market participants to view the probability of an upcoming Fed Rate hike.

Data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.

This tool is built in HTML5, which performs best in Firefox, Chrome, or Internet Explorer 9+. If you are using Internet Explorer version 8 or below, please click here for the Flash-based tool.

  • Probability of a rate hike is calculated by adding the probabilities of all target rate levels of 0.50 or higher.
  • Probabilities of possible Fed Funds target rates are based on Fed Fund futures contract prices assuming that the rate hike is 0.25% (25 basis points) and that the Fed Funds Effective Rate (FFER) will react by a like amount.
  • FOMC meetings probabilities are determined from the corresponding CME Group Fed Fund futures contracts.
  • The probabilities shown are associated with the upper end of the potential range for the Fed Funds rate, for example .25 is associated with the 0.0-0.25 range.
  • Probability of no change in the target rate is shown by the 0.25 bar. The effective Fed Funds rate typically trades somewhere in the middle of the target range.

Rate Hike Resources

FOMC Meeting | About FOMC

December 15-16, 2015

Next Statement | View Past Minutes

2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, December 16, 2015

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