Highlights
- Downward revision to NFP figures, rising jobless claims, the dovish tone from the Fed at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole and the latest PCE data have increased the expectation of a September rate cut. FedWatch now shows over an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming September FOMC meeting. COMEX active Gold futures prices rose 5.0% month-over-month (MoM), closing August at historical high of $3,516.1/oz.
- Given the strong bullish momentum of gold, silver has emerged as a gold proxy, with prices rising 10.9% MoM to settle at $40.725/oz in August. This marks the largest monthly gain since May 2024 and the highest level since 2011.
- Copper prices have remained relatively range-bounded since the announcement that copper cathodes would be excluded from tariffs. Prices finished August at $4.5905/lb, up 5.4% MoM. This rebound was supported by the U.S. government’s proposal to include copper in the 2025 draft critical minerals list, recognizing its key role in the clean energy transition, following a double-digit percentage loss in July.
- In addition to the deep liquidity of our Micro Metals products, we are pleased to report that the average daily volume (ADV) and average daily open interest (ADOI) of 1-Ounce Gold (1OZ) futures reached new monthly highs of 16,155 contracts and 9,043 contracts, respectively.
Micro Gold (MGC), Micro Silver (SIL) and Micro Copper (MHG) Futures Update
MGC, SIL and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)
*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).
Options Heatmap (Change in OI from July 31st to August 29th, 2025)
Key Economic Events in September/October 2025:
|
Key Economic Event |
ET |
GMT / BST |
SGT / HKT |
|---|---|---|---|
|
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Sep 2, 10.00 a.m. |
Sep 2, 3.00 p.m. |
Sep 2, 10.00 p.m. |
|
U.S. Non Farm Payrolls |
Sep 5, 8.30 a.m. |
Sep 5, 1.30 p.m. |
Sep 5, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China Balance of Trade |
Sep 7, 11.00 p.m. |
Sep 8, 4.00 a.m. |
Sep 8, 11.00 a.m. |
|
China Inflation Rate YoY |
Sep 9, 9.30 p.m. |
Sep 10, 2.30 a.m. |
Sep 10, 9.30 a.m. |
|
U.S. Inflation Numbers |
Sep 11, 8.30 a.m. |
Sep 11, 1.30 p.m. |
Sep 11, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China Industrial Production YoY |
Sep 14, 10.00 p.m. |
Sep 15, 3.00 a.m. |
Sep 15, 10.00 a.m. |
|
U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections and Fed Press Conference |
Sep 17, 2.00 p.m. |
Sep 17, 7.00 p.m. |
Sep 18, 2.00 a.m. |
|
U.S. Core PCE Price Index |
Sep 26, 8.30 a.m. |
Sep 26, 1.30 p.m. |
Sep 26, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China NBS Manufacturing PMI |
Sep 29, 9.30 p.m. |
Sep 30, 2.30 a.m. |
Sep 30, 9.30 a.m. |
|
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI |
Sep 29, 9.45 p.m. |
Sep 30, 2.45 a.m. |
Sep 30, 9.45 a.m. |
|
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Oct 1, 10.00 a.m. |
Oct 1, 3.00 p.m. |
Oct 1, 10.00 p.m. |
|
U.S. Non Farm Payrolls |
Oct 3, 8.30 a.m. |
Oct 3, 1.30 p.m. |
Oct 3, 8.30 p.m. |
|
FOMC Minutes |
Oct 8, 3.00 p.m. |
Oct 8, 8.00 p.m. |
Oct 9, 3.00 a.m. |
|
China Balance of Trade |
Oct 12, 11.00 p.m. |
Oct 13, 4.00 a.m. |
Oct 13, 11.00 a.m. |
|
China Inflation Rate YoY |
Oct 14, 9.30 p.m. |
Oct 15, 2.30 a.m. |
Oct 15, 9.30 a.m. |
|
U.S. Inflation Numbers |
Oct 15, 8.30 a.m. |
Oct 15, 1.30 p.m. |
Oct 15, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China Industrial Production YoY |
Oct 19, 10.00 p.m. |
Oct 20, 3.00 a.m. |
Oct 20, 10.00 a.m. |
|
U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision and Fed Press Conference |
Oct 29, 2.00 p.m. |
Oct 29, 6.00 p.m. |
Oct 30, 2.00 a.m. |
|
U.S. GDP Growth Rate QoQ |
Oct 30, 8.30 a.m. |
Oct 30, 12.30 p.m. |
Oct 30, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China NBS Manufacturing PMI |
Oct 30, 9.30 p.m. |
Oct 31, 1.30 a.m. |
Oct 31, 9.30 a.m. |
|
U.S. Core PCE Price Index |
Oct 31, 8.30 a.m. |
Oct 31, 12.30 p.m. |
Oct 31, 8.30 p.m. |
Source: CME Group, Quikstrike
Useful resources
Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.
Build and test your trading strategies in a simulated environment with free pricing and analytics tools for CME Group markets. Choose from three ways to access exclusive, web-based tools developed by QuikStrike®.
Disclaimer
Exchange traded derivatives and cleared over-the-counter (“OTC”) derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Exchange traded and OTC derivatives are leveraged instruments and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money initially deposited. This communication does not (within the meaning of any applicable legislation) constitute a Prospectus or a public offering of securities; nor is it a recommendation, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
The content in this communication has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be construed as advice. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and you should obtain appropriate professional advice before acting on or relying on the information set out in this communication. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information within this communication as of the date of publication, CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. Additionally, all examples and information in this communication are used for explanation purposes only and should not be considered, investment advice, the results of actual market experience, or the promotion of any particular products or services. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (“CME”), the Chicago Board of Trade, Inc. (“CBOT”), the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (“NYMEX”), and the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (“COMEX”) rulebooks or, as applicable, the respective Rulebooks of CME Group’s certain other subsidiary trading facilities. Current rules should be consulted in all cases including matters relevant to contract specifications.