Highlights
- The ongoing tariff concerns and President Trump’s comments about firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed gold prices above $3,450/oz. in mid-July. A subsequent hawkish Fed meeting, however, led to U.S. dollar strength, putting pressure on prices. The Micro Gold (MGC) August 2025 contract eventually settled slightly under $3,300/oz. for July, largely unchanged month-over-month (MoM).
- Silver prices approached $40/oz. when the market anticipated that sectoral tariffs might affect industrial metals other than copper. The realization that bullion would likely be exempted, following the announcement of input copper's exclusion, allowed silver to close 1.5% higher MoM at $36.710/oz.
- Copper prices jumped 13% on July 8 after President Trump announced a potential 50% tariff on copper imports. At the end of the month, however, copper cathodes—the primary form of copper deliverable into CME Group warehouses—were excluded from the tariff. Consequently, prices fell to $4.3545/lb., down 14.3% MoM.
- Given the rapid developments surrounding the copper tariff, Micro Copper futures (MHG) July 2025 average daily volume (ADV) reached its second-highest monthly record of 23,109 contracts, an encouraging increase of approximately 89% MoM. Additionally, the 1-Ounce Gold Futures (1OZ) July 2025 ADV reached 9,915 contracts, marking the highest monthly record since its product launch.
Micro Gold (MGC), Micro Silver (SIL) and Micro Copper (MHG) Futures Update
MGC, SIL and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)
*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).
Options Heatmap (Change in OI from July 1 to July 31, 2025)
Key economic events in August/September 2025:
|
Key Economic Event |
ET |
GMT / BST |
SGT / HKT |
|---|---|---|---|
|
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls |
Aug 1, 8.30 a.m. |
Aug 1, 1.30 p.m. |
Aug 1, 8.30 p.m. |
|
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Aug 1, 10.00 a.m. |
Aug 1, 3.00 p.m. |
Aug 1, 10.00 p.m. |
|
China Balance of Trade |
Aug 6, 11.00 p.m. |
Aug 7, 4.00 a.m. |
Aug 7, 11.00 a.m. |
|
China Inflation Rate YoY |
Aug 8, 9.30 p.m. |
Aug 9, 2.30 a.m. |
Aug 9, 9.30 a.m. |
|
U.S. Inflation Numbers |
Aug 12, 8.30 a.m. |
Aug 12, 1.30 p.m. |
Aug 12, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China Industrial Production YoY |
Aug 14, 10.00 p.m. |
Aug 15, 3.00 a.m. |
Aug 15, 10.00 a.m. |
|
FOMC Minutes |
Aug 20, 2.00 p.m. |
Aug 20, 7.00 p.m. |
Aug 21, 2.00 a.m. |
|
U.S. GDP Growth Rate QoQ |
Aug 28, 8.30 a.m. |
Aug 28, 1.30 p.m. |
Aug 28, 8.30 p.m. |
|
U.S. Core PCE Price Index |
Aug 29, 8.30 a.m. |
Aug 29, 1.30 p.m. |
Aug 29, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China NBS Manufacturing PMI |
Aug 30, 9.30 p.m. |
Aug 31, 2.30 a.m. |
Aug 31, 9.30 a.m. |
|
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI |
Aug 31, 9.45 p.m. |
Sep 1, 2.45 a.m. |
Sep 1, 9.45 a.m. |
|
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI |
Sep 2, 10.00 a.m. |
Sep 2, 3.00 p.m. |
Sep 2, 10.00 p.m. |
|
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls |
Sep 5, 8.30 a.m. |
Sep 5, 1.30 p.m. |
Sep 5, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China Balance of Trade |
Sep 7, 11.00 p.m. |
Sep 8, 4.00 a.m. |
Sep 8, 11.00 a.m. |
|
China Inflation Rate YoY |
Sep 9, 9.30 p.m. |
Sep 10, 2.30 a.m. |
Sep 10, 9.30 a.m. |
|
U.S. Inflation Numbers |
Sep 11, 8.30 a.m. |
Sep 11, 1.30 p.m. |
Sep 11, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China Industrial Production YoY |
Sep 14, 10.00 p.m. |
Sep 15, 3.00 a.m. |
Sep 15, 10.00 a.m. |
|
U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections and Fed Press Conference |
Sep 17, 2.00 p.m. |
Sep 17, 7.00 p.m. |
Sep 18, 2.00 a.m. |
|
U.S. Core PCE Price Index |
Sep 26, 8.30 a.m. |
Sep 26, 1.30 p.m. |
Sep 26, 8.30 p.m. |
|
China NBS Manufacturing PMI |
Sep 29, 9.30 p.m. |
Sep 30, 2.30 a.m. |
Sep 30, 9.30 a.m. |
|
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI |
Sep 29, 9.45 p.m. |
Sep 30, 2.45 a.m. |
Sep 30, 9.45 a.m. |
Source: CME Group, Quikstrike
Useful resources
Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves with the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) tool can provide a comprehensive and highly configurable graphical representation of the CFTC's report on market open interest.
Build and test your trading strategies in a simulated environment with free pricing and analytics tools for CME Group markets. Choose from three ways to access exclusive, web-based tools developed by QuikStrike®.
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