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Gold has decisively broken through its previous resistance at the 3,500 level and subsequently surpassed 4,000, rallying more than 20% in just two months.

Silver has followed a similar trajectory, breaking decisively above the 40 level and embarking on an exceptional bull run, gaining over 30% in the same period.

The CME Group Volatility Index (CVOL), which measures the market’s 30-day forward risk expectations, has spiked sharply. Silver volatility has surged to levels last seen in 2021, while gold has matched levels last observed after the U.S. President’s “Liberation Day.” This rise likely reflects heightened broader market volatility, which has increased the appeal of precious metals as hedging instruments, driving both prices and volatility higher.

The Brazilian real failed to break convincingly above the neckline of a multi-month ascending triangle and has since retreated to the lower support band. A rebound from this level would reinforce support and signal potential renewed BRL strength.

Crude oil failed to sustain its previous breakdown below the neckline of a multi-year descending triangle but has recently breached the neckline once again. If prices fail to reclaim this level, it could signal the start of a decisive bearish trend.

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Apart from Brazil and India, markets enjoyed a brief lull after U.S. President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs took effect on August 7. For several weeks, there were few new tariff headlines. That changed in late September, when the first domino fell: the U.S. imposed additional tariffs on timber, furniture and kitchen cabinets, much of which is sourced from China, and tightened controls on semiconductor tools. Beijing responded by extending export restrictions to five additional rare minerals, prompting a swift counter from Washington: a 100% tariff on all Chinese exports. Since mid-September 2025, U.S. and China trade relations have pivoted from cautious détente to open confrontation, marked by escalating tariffs, export bans and retaliatory shipping fees.

Major equity indices around the world experienced seesaw movements, with heavy initial sell-offs followed by short-lived rebounds, as optimism over negotiations clashed with headlines of new tariffs and Chinese countermeasures. The crypto market suffered one of its largest liquidation events ever, with over USD 19 billion in market value wiped out in a single weekend. Although markets later stabilized, volatility remained elevated, as reflected in the surged interest in precious metals. Gold, silver and platinum, already on record-breaking runs this year, received another boost from the renewed trade tensions.

The impact extends beyond equity and crypto markets. The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consumers. Additional port fees on shipping between the two countries will raise transport costs, disrupt freight flows and weigh further on economic output. These new demand risks arrive just as the International Energy Agency warns of a supply surplus of up to four million barrels per day in 2026; larger than previously forecast. With excess supply, weakening demand and abating geopolitical risks in Gaza due to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, the outlook for crude oil prices has turned increasingly bearish.

In our previous piece, we highlighted how Brazil could emerge as a relative beneficiary from escalating trade tensions. Recent months have confirmed this view. Brazil’s exports have continued to grow despite U.S. tariffs, underscoring its resilience. As more countries diversify away from the U.S. and deepen ties elsewhere, Brazil stands out as a key exporter of several commodities. Its growing trade links with China, regional partners and potentially the European Union are likely to further lift export volumes, bolstering demand for the Brazilian real and supporting its appreciation.

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We conclude with the following hypothetical trades:¹

Case study 1: Long Brazilian Real futures

If one holds a bullish view of Brazilian real, one could consider taking a long position in Brazilian Real (6L) futures at the current price of 0.1820, with a stop-loss below 0.1805, a hypothetical maximum loss of 0.1820 – 0.1805 = 0.0015 points. Looking at Figure 4, the Brazilian real has the potential to rise back to its neckline at 0.1855, resulting in 0.1860 – 0.1820 = 0.0040 points. Each point move in the Brazilian Real futures contract is 100,000 USD.

Case study 2: Short Crude Oil futures

If one holds a bearish view of crude oil, one could consider taking a short position in Micro WTI Crude Oil (MCL) futures at the current price of 58.70, with a stop-loss above 64.50, a hypothetical maximum loss of 64.50 – 58.70 = 5.80 points. Looking at Figure 5, WTI crude oil has the potential to trace back to its previous support range of 42.50, resulting in 58.70 – 42.50 = 16.20 points. Each Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contract represents 100 barrels, and each point move is 100 USD. The standard WTI Crude Oil futures contract is available as well.

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¹ Examples cited above are for illustration only and shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Please refer to full disclaimers at the end of the commentary.

This publication is provided by Inspirante Trading Solutions Pte Ltd (“ITS”) for general information and educational purposes only. ITS is NOT licensed or regulated for the provision of investment or financial advice, and we do not seek to do so.

Any past performance, projection, forecast, or simulation of results is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of any investment.

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