In this report

COMMODITY QUICKENING

Structural shifts are redefining the commodities boom

The commodities market is undergoing a fundamental transformation, driven by deep structural changes rather than just cyclical trends. This has led to sustained, record-breaking trading activity over multiple years.

A primary driver of this shift is the internationalization of U.S.-based benchmarks. The United States has emerged as a leading exporter of crude oil and natural gas, establishing WTI (CL) and Henry Hub (NG) as critical global benchmarks. This has attracted a new wave of international customers from Europe and Asia who are now exposed to physical flows from the U.S., increasing both trading volume and open interest (OI). Furthermore, natural gas has evolved from a seasonal heating fuel to a year-round foundational energy source for global power generation.

The global energy transition is another significant structural force. It is creating new markets and blurring the lines between existing ones. Demand for battery metals like Cobalt (COB) and Lithium (LTH) is surging, driven by electric vehicles and large-scale energy storage projects, leading to record volumes in their associated futures contracts.

This transition is also impacting agriculture. Soybean Oil (ZL), a primary feedstock for renewable diesel, now often trades more like an Energy product than a traditional agricultural good. This has increased its correlation with Energy contracts and attracted new participants, like energy firms, to the agricultural markets.

In this evolving landscape, options have become an essential tool for managing risk. Trading volumes have surged, particularly in short-dated and Weekly options, as sophisticated market participants seek more precise instruments to hedge against specific event risks in a market that presents new challenges daily.


SOY SNAFU

Without Chinese sales, soybeans may be sitting in storage

A deepening trade dispute between the United States and China is hitting American soybean farmers particularly hard, disrupting a market that typically sees over half of all U.S.-grown soybean exports sold to China. After the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing retaliated with its own duties. According to the American Soybean Association, these have raised the total tariff on American soybeans to 34 percent, making them significantly more expensive for Chinese buyers than competing supplies from South American countries like Brazil. While top U.S. and Chinese negotiators continue to meet, significant disagreements on other issues mean a resolution is not yet in sight.

The loss of the Chinese market is creating significant disruptions across the entire U.S. soybean supply chain, from farms to grain elevators and transport lines. With the harvest season approaching, many farmers will be forced to store their soybeans in spare bins and large plastic bags to avoid selling at a tremendous loss. In response to this volatility, market participants like processors and traders are using financial instruments to manage their risk. For example, traders can use Soybean Oilshare (OSF) contracts to directly hedge the risk associated with the oil's contribution to the overall soybean value. Smaller 10-Ton Fertilizer contracts can be used to protect against suppl



CRUDE OIL, REFINED STRATEGY

WTI: From local to global – How U.S. crude exports reshaped the market

The lifting of the 40-year-old ban on U.S. crude oil exports in 2015 fundamentally reshaped the global energy market, transforming the NYMEX WTI benchmark from a landlocked, domestic indicator into a premier global one. This policy change connected the boom in U.S. shale production, particularly from the Permian Basin, directly to international buyers, establishing the U.S. Gulf Coast as the new marginal pricing point for the global market. As U.S. production and export capacity surged – with the Permian Basin growing to five million barrels per day and the Gulf Coast reaching seven million in export capacity – WTI's price became a more accurate reflection of worldwide supply and demand, competing directly with the international Brent benchmark.

This physical market evolution has been mirrored by the growth of the WTI futures market, which has adapted to remain relevant on the global stage. The contract's pricing mechanism now reflects the value of crude at the Gulf Coast export hubs, leading to surging trading volumes and increased use by international buyers in Asia and Europe. In response to the need for more specific risk management tools, highly liquid futures for key regional grades, such as WTI Houston (HTT) and WTI Midland (WTT), which trade as a differential to the main WTI benchmark, provide essential price transparency into these regions. With a combined OI of over 800 million barrels across the Crude Grades complex, these contracts serve as unique hedging tools, enabling traders to navigate the expanding U.S. crude export landscape.


GOING PLATINUM

Green energy driver meets tight supply in surging market

Platinum (PL) is experiencing a significant surge in demand and price, with a year-to-date increase of over 15%, driven by a confluence of powerful factors. A key driver is its critical role in the green energy transition, as it is essential for hydrogen technologies like PEM electrolyzers and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). This demand is projected to become the largest segment for platinum use by 2040. Adding to this, platinum is increasingly being substituted for more expensive palladium in automotive catalysts. Alongside this industrial and green-tech demand, there is also growing investment interest, highlighted by significant purchases from entities like the Chinese central bank, which views it as a store of value.

This robust demand is running up against a constrained and geopolitically sensitive supply chain, creating a tight market outlook. A significant portion of global platinum is mined in Russia, making the supply chain inherently volatile and susceptible to disruptions. The market is forecast to be in a structural deficit, meaning demand is outpacing supply, which will continue to draw down existing above-ground stocks. This situation is compounded by the fact that even with rising prices, there is little incentive to increase mine supply without a substantial price increase, ensuring the market remains tight and highly sensitive to any supply shortfalls.


Insights

As of mid August, almost a third of the U.S. corn crop is in dent stage. Weather will play an important role in final crop development.


Copper could face a supply shortfall of 30% by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).


U.S. shale producers, notably quiet on hedging since the pandemic, are reengaging in WTI futures and options.


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All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.

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