In this report

FROM FIELDS TO FUTURES

How policy, production and protectionism are influencing commodity markets

Global commodity markets are influenced by a range of factors, including policy decisions and geopolitical events. From the oil fields of the Middle East to the wheat farms of the American Midwest and the steel mills of industrial heartlands, a common trend is emerging: Uncertainty is driving a new era of proactive risk management. H1 2025 (and Q2 2025) showed record levels of ADV across the entire commodities portfolio at 5.8 million and 6 million respectively.

Geopolitical dynamics are adding complexity to the crude oil market, making OPEC meetings key events. In the week ahead of the most recent OPEC meeting on August 3, WTI Weekly options traded 117,963 contracts (compared to ADV of 23,588 and ADOI of 46,269). Traders can use OPEC Watch to track outcome probabilities ahead of the next meeting on September 7, and hedge their risk with cost-effective WTI Crude Oil Weekly options using the Friday (LO1) and Monday (ML1) contracts for precise positioning.

To manage price uncertainty from global trade policies, market participants can use Hard Red Spring (HRS) Wheat futures and options. Futures can hedge a sale price against a market downturn, while options can establish a minimum price, protecting against downside risk while retaining upside potential.

Amid price uncertainty from tariffs, the steel industry is increasingly using Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Steel futures to manage risk. This has led to a notable increase in trading volume and open interest, boosting liquidity in the HRC futures market.

Market participants are increasingly turning to futures and options not just as speculative instruments, but as essential tools for risk management.


SUMMER SURGE

Henry Hub heats up as market prices shift in volatile summer weather

A review of trading data reveals significant year-over-year growth in both liquidity and market conviction in the Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG) market, as participants position for sustained volatility.

While 2024 data showed a typical seasonal pattern across Natural Gas – with average daily volume (ADV) declining from its Q1 winter peak – average daily open interest (ADOI) remained robust, peaking in Q3 at over 7.6 million contracts. This indicated strong conviction from participants holding positions through the summer cooling season.

A look at quarterly market statistics for 2025 compared to 2024 tell a story of growing anticipation, increased risk management, and heightened speculation.

  • Q1 2025: ADV and ADOI jumped by 26.4% and 12.5% respectively compared to Q1 2024.

  • Q2 2025: The trend continued, with ADV and ADOI rising 12.8% and 8.0% compared to Q2 2024.

  • Q3 2025 (to date) is outpacing its 2024 counterpart, with both ADV and ADOI showing continued year-over-year growth. With the quarter still in progress, the data suggests that the activity is not letting up as we move through a perhaps cooler summer season. 

The growth and volatility of Henry Hub trading are being significantly influenced by a confluence of bearish market factors. A combination of cooling weather forecasts, which reduce domestic energy demand, alongside a surge in U.S. natural gas production, is creating an oversupply situation. This is further compounded by softening demand for LNG exports and rising storage inventories that are currently above the five-year average. This interplay of weakening domestic and international demand with robust supply creates significant price pressure and uncertainty, driving activity in the Henry Hub futures market as traders and industry players seek to manage their risk in a rapidly changing environment.


FROM THE GROUND UP

A more precise way to hedge: Introducing 10-Ton Urea U.S. Gulf futures and options

In today's dynamic agricultural markets, effectively managing input cost volatility is crucial for success. Price fluctuations in key fertilizers like urea can significantly impact your bottom line.

Introducing 10-Ton Urea U.S. Gulf futures (MFV) contracts. Specifically designed for a wider range of market participants, this smaller, financially settled contract offers a more accessible and capital-efficient tool for hedging your exposure to the granular urea market in the U.S. Gulf, without the capital commitment of larger contracts. Protect your margins against adverse price movements and gain budget certainty and make more confident business decisions.


THE PLATINUM POP

Platinum surge drives volumes to all-time highs

Platinum plays a central role in renewable energy, particularly in hydrogen cell technology. Given China’s ambitious green targets, the country has been heavily purchasing platinum. The latest buying spree has led to record volumes and a sharp increase in price. Platinum (PL) futures are up 16% YTD, and the price has increased by approximately 40% since January, (as of July 10, 2025).

In addition, the top 10 trading days in Platinum futures have been in June 2025, highlighting the significance of Platinum futures and providing the tools needed to capitalize on trading opportunities.


You have options with platinum

In addition to the record Platinum futures trading, Platinum (PO) options have surged up 99% YTD. June was a record month, with over 4K contracts trading per day, and June 26 being a record day, seeing over 8.6K contracts traded. 

Open interest (OI) also peaked in July, with over 60K contracts, demonstrating unmatched liquidity. 

Settled to Platinum futures, Platinum options offer a robust solution to all market participants to manage any associated price risk. 


Introducing our most precise hedging tool for the platinum market

Earlier this year, we introduced new Friday expirations for Platinum Weekly options, providing market participants with expanded flexibility to manage short-term price risks in the platinum market. 

It’s been encouraging seeing these contracts slowly take adoption in June, with 31 contracts traded, suggesting growing investor appetite for short-term tactical exposure characterized by significant supply constraints.


Insights

As the shift toward renewable fuels boosts soybean oil demand, Soybean Oilshare futures and options offer a streamlined approach to trading the relationship between soybean oil and soybean meal.


India's rapidly increasing energy demands have significant global implications, potentially benefiting U.S. oil and natural gas markets and the growth of the NYMEX WTI and Henry Hub benchmarks.


Gold prices have reached new record highs in 2025, defying the traditional inverse relationship with interest rates. This surge is driven by increasing geopolitical risks, strong central bank demand, a weaker dollar and inflation concerns. 


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All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.

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