FX Markets Drives Increased Hedging Opportunities in Black Sea Wheat Trades

During this period of increased global uncertainty, prices for wheat in US dollars had fallen 7% in comparison to the values seen at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019. At the end of September 2020, the active futures contract was priced at 227.50 dollars per metric ton. However, over the same period, there has been a depreciation in the value of the RUB in relation to the US dollar, moving from around RUB 62.50 per dollar to RUB 78.40 per dollar. This latter effect will be beneficial for Russian wheat exporters, as the CBOT price expressed in RUB has increased from RUB 13,395 to RUB 17,836 per metric ton ‒ which is approximately a 33% increase.

Such significant volatility in the FX markets highlights the uncertainty that exporters face. It is worth noting that any move in the FX rate that benefits an exporter – i.e. an appreciating USD versus RUB since the exporter is selling in USD – will conversely have a negative effect on the importers (a depreciating RUB versus USD since the importer is buying in USD).

CME Group offers futures and options contracts on the Russian ruble FX rate, which can be used to manage this FX exposure. These contracts are cash settled with reference to the rate for US dollars priced in Russian rubles, as published by the Moscow Exchange. Each futures contract is valued for RUB 2,500,000. Using prices at the end of September 2020, this equates to a contact value of $31,900, which can be compared to the dollar value of a Black Sea wheat futures contract of $11,375.

Below is an example of how the CME Russian Ruble futures contract can be used to hedge the FX component of a Black Sea wheat export transaction.

In late August, a Russian wheat producer has an export order to a miller for 25,000 metric tons of wheat, to be delivered at the end of November. The agreed terms are for payment in US dollars at a rate equal to the CBOT Black Sea Wheat November futures price on the delivery day, minus $10 per metric ton.

For the producer, this creates a two-month period of uncertainty as to the revenue that will actually be achieved. From a price risk management perspective, the producer is exposed to the price of Black Sea wheat, but as they earn their income, they are also exposed to the FX rate between the US dollar and the Russian ruble. Both price risk components can be hedged with futures.

The producer can manage their exposure to the wheat price using the CBOT Black Sea Wheat futures contract. In wheat, one futures lot equals 50 metric tons of wheat, therefore, a total of 500 lots of Black Sea wheat for November delivery will need to be sold.

The exposure to the wheat price can be hedged with CBOT Black Sea Wheat futures. With each futures contract representing 50 metric tons of wheat, selling 500 futures for the November contract month will effectively hedge this position with respect to the price of wheat.

The price of the CBOT Black Sea Wheat futures November contract is 223.25 dollars per metric ton. By selling 500 lots of futures at this price, the exposure to wheat price fluctuations will be hedged. With a price of 223.25 dollars per metric ton established through the use of the Black Sea Wheat futures hedge, the producer can be confident in achieving a dollar revenue of 213.25 dollars per metric ton on the sale of the wheat, which includes the agreed discount of $10 per metric ton with the miller. The FX component of the transaction can be hedged using the CME Russian Ruble futures contract (product code RU). To determine the hedge transaction required, the producer needs to determine whether to buy or sell futures and the quantity to be transacted.

Even though the CME Russian Ruble futures contract is a cash settled contract, buying one contract is equivalent to buying Russian rubles in exchange for US dollars. Selling the futures is equivalent to selling Russian rubles in exchange for US dollars.

The Russian wheat producer will wish to convert the US dollar proceeds into Russian rubles upon completion and delivery of the wheat, and therefore, will be buying Russian rubles. The associated FX risk exposure can be hedged by buying CME Russian Ruble futures contracts. These futures should be purchased to implement the hedge and sold to close out the position once the FX hedge is no longer required. This will create a “futures pay off” on the FX portion of the hedge ‒ being the difference between the price they paid and the price they closed the trade out at. Trading in the CME Russian Ruble futures terminates on the 15^th day of the contract month, and if that is not a business day, then the business day after that³. This would make December the appropriate futures contract month to hedge this transaction since the CME Russian Ruble futures contract is listed in quarterly cycle serial contract months only.

The number of FX futures needed to hedge the transaction can be calculated by considering the currency exposure.  With the wheat futures hedge, the producer will expect to receive US$ 5,331,250 from the sale.

The futures price, quoted in US dollars per Russian ruble, is $0.012970, which is the equivalent of RUB 77.101 per US dollar. At this exchange rate the sale proceeds will be RUB 411,044,719. The contract size of the CME Russian Ruble futures contract is RUB 2,500,000, therefore, to hedge the FX exposure, the producer needs to buy 164 futures.

We can examine what might happen to this hedged position in different outcomes. To focus on the FX component, let’s assume that the wheat price is unchanged over the one-month period.

A decrease in the value of the Russian ruble can also be viewed as an increase in the value of the US dollar, measured in Russian rubles. In this example, we assume a decrease in value from $0.012970 to $0.012670 per Russian ruble, a decline of 2.3%. This can also be seen as a change in value from RUB 77.1010 per US dollar to RUB 78.9266 per US dollar.

With the wheat price stable at 223.25 dollars per metric ton, the US dollars proceeding from the sale are $5,331,250, and the return from the wheat futures hedge is $0. In local currency terms, the proceeds are RUB 420,777,427, which is higher than anticipated had the exchange rate not changed.  This higher outcome is offset by a loss made on the FX futures position. Overall, the cashflow has been maintained in line with expectations, which is the purpose of the hedging strategy.

An increase in the value of the Russian ruble can also be viewed as a decrease in the value of the US dollar, measured in Russian rubles. In this example, we assume a marginal increase in value from $0.012970 to $0.012980 per Russian ruble. This can also be seen as a change in value from RUB 77.1010 per US dollar to RUB 77.0416 per US dollar.

Again, with the wheat price stable at 223.25 dollars per metric ton, the US dollars proceeding from the sale are $5,331,250, and again the return from the wheat futures hedge is $0. However, in local currency terms, the proceeds are RUB 401,752,072, which is lower than anticipated had the exchange rate not changed. To compensate, the FX futures hedge position records a gain of $123,000, which equates to a gain of RUB 9,732,708.

Black Sea wheat markets remain volatile and hedging price risk remains an important consideration. In addition, the volatility in foreign exchange markets can also be an unpredictable factor that firms are looking to hedge. By hedging foreign exchange risk, companies are able to stabilize future cash flows ‒ which in turn creates greater confidence in business performance.

The CME suite of Agricultural futures sit alongside a number of key Foreign Exchange futures contracts, providing participants with the key hedging tools to manage growing risks in the sector.

Salient features of the futures contracts discussed in this article.

Explore why more participants are hedging their RUB/USD exposure at CME – the largest regulated, liquid, transparent, and capital-efficient FX marketplace.

¹ Source: USDA FAS (US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service)

² Source: USDA FAS (US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service)

³ See https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/emerging-market/russian-ruble_contract_specifications.html.

⁴ In this example, the exporter needs to buy 164.42 RUB futures contracts to hedge the FX risk. However, since the exporter can only transact in whole contracts, the exporter needs to round the number of RUB futures for the hedge to the nearest whole increment. The exporter thus buys 164 RUB futures to complete the FX hedge. This slight imprecision in the exporter’s hedge ratio, however, does not negate the overall purpose or effectiveness of the FX hedge.