So far in 2025, the CME Group NWM marker has been set at levels that outbid most Asian price sensitive buyers for flexible U.S. LNG. This has anchored a large share of Atlantic Basin supply to stay within the region, supporting near-record European LNG deliveries and driving Asian imports lower versus last year. Europe has relied on this incremental LNG to offset both low stocks exiting winter and another reduction in Russian pipeline flows.

Into the coming winter, Europe remains priced at a premium sufficient to attract the marginal U.S. cargo. The requirement for incremental LNG deliveries year on year to balance the systems seems clear, with Russian pipeline imports again set to outturn lower and storage inventories entering the winter below last year’s levels. Europe must therefore continue to price aggressively to secure flexible U.S. LNG, especially with lower underground stocks amplifying the risk from sharper withdrawals in the event of colder weather.

Further out, the curve begins to reflect the growing impact of the next supply wave. USGC netbacks remain firmly in the money but decline progressively into 2026 as new volumes come onto the market. This additional supply growth softens prices and re-incentivises price sensitive Asian demand. 

As more flexible U.S. volumes come online, Europe’s need to sustain a premium to secure flexible U.S. LNG cargoes diminishes. Futures illustrate this shift, with the U.S. NWE - JKM arb narrowing into summer 2026, consistent with a loosening global balance and a less aggressive European pull on flexible U.S. LNG.

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