Current futures curves for winter 2025/2026 show TTF-115% Henry Hub (HH) spreads are dramatically smaller than those seen over the 2024/2025 heating season. An additional 50-60 mtpa of global LNG supply is expected to come online by the end of March 2026, putting downward pressure on prices as the market starts to transition from the current supply constrained regime. 

EU storage fill targets of 90%, in place since 2022, are inducing further backwardation of TTF. Mandates shift European demand from winter to summer, spreading demand out across the year. This year, the effect on summer prices may be more pronounced after a cold winter left EU storage 33% full, below its five-year average of 43%. HH has retained its traditional seasonality, with winter demand driving up prices. The result is summer 2025 forward netbacks currently generating higher netbacks for U.S. LNG exporters than winter 2025/2026.

U.S. exporters may benefit from adjusting their schedules. Winter has historically delivered the highest netbacks, and in past years, terminals have reserved parts of summer for essential annual maintenance.

Proposals to relax EU storage targets have contributed to a sharp drop in front-month TTF prices over the past month. But the TTF futures curve remains stubbornly inverted. For U.S. LNG exporters, lower spreads may be a sign of things to come. Gas prices in Asia and Europe are expected to further decline as the next wave of LNG export capacity fully materializes.

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