2025 will be a year of big changes in the global LNG market, with an expected incremental increase of 23.5 mtpa of new capacity in the U.S. alone. The commissioning of Plaquemines Phase 1 and expansion of Corpus Christi’s Stage 3 represent a milestone in a market ridden with delays.

The expected incremental increase of 105 mtpa of U.S. supply by 2030 (plus more in Mexico and Canada) is set to have twin impacts:

1. A tightening of the U.S. domestic balance, reflected in the 12% contango from 2025 into 2026. U.S. feedgas demand would increase by an additional 16.4 bcf/d on average by 2030, more than doubling the 14.6 bcf/d peak in 2024, bringing upside risk for U.S. gas prices if domestic supply fails to scale as required.
2. A loosening of global gas markets. New global supply is likely to drive global gas prices lower as reflected in the backwardation of JKM, with forward calendar prices dropping 41% from 2025 to 2030.

This projection of strong capacity growth has faced challenges:

• Golden Pass LNG terminal suffered bankruptcy of its lead contractor, leading to a potential multi-year delay.
• The Biden administration’s pause on permitting new LNG export capacity has delayed timelines of pre-FID projects (e.g., Calcasieu Pass 2, Commonwealth LNG).
• A recent U.S. Dept. of Energy LNG study released, urging caution on new permits.

The large increase in U.S. LNG export capacity represents a forecast of 13.8% CAGR over 2025 to 2030, compared to 10.6% CAGR over 2019 to 2024. Asian demand growth will be key to balancing the global LNG market and mitigating the risk of U.S. supply shut-ins, which would suppress Henry Hub prices during periods of peak global oversupply as the global and U.S. markets balance in tandem.

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