Increased Volatility Calls for Sophisticated Management of Risk
Futures markets provide several tools for mitigating risk. Investors face elevated risks, ranging from abrupt price movements and increased volatility to geopolitical uncertainty. Whether a participant in the spot market or a financial investor with no physical exposure, the need to mitigate or even eliminate the risks posed by heightened tensions surrounding pivotal oil-producing regions has never been greater than it has been over the past few months.
Since the latest chapter in the turbulent history of the Middle East began at the end of February, managing futures positions, particularly those left open over the weekend, has become an absolute necessity. As illustrated in the chart above, the price gap in the CME Group flagship WTI Crude Oil contract between Friday's settlement and Sunday night's opening level has been growing ever wider. On average, this fluctuation, in absolute terms, was 27 cents/bbl in 2024 and 42 cents/bbl in 2025. Between March and September 2026, as the Iranian conflict raged on, it jumped to $2.29/bbl. The widest positive opening gap was $8/bbl at the very beginning of March, while the largest negative chasm reached $4.50/bbl at the beginning of August, when the U.S. called off its scheduled strike against Iran, easing mounting tensions.
These are unpredictable times, as evidenced by the wide price fluctuations. The likelihood of starting the new week with a significant move away from the previous settlement price is much higher than it was before the conflict. Managing existing futures positions or attempting to take advantage of hectic weekend price movements has therefore become a novel modus operandi among investors. One reasonable tool is to buy a monthly vanilla put or call option. This, however, might prove to be a costly exercise, as the time value of a monthly option may be disproportionately high given that the position is held for only two or three days.
WTI Weekly options from CME Group solve this dilemma. The instrument is specifically designed to manage short-term risk arising from geopolitical developments and other major events, such as OPEC meetings. It offers options that expire throughout the week. While weekly and monthly average daily volumes (ADV) may be somewhat volatile, as they are heavily influenced by market sentiment like any other contract, their medium-term growth is unquestionable. During the 2024–2025 period, WTI Weekly options ADV reached 22,000 contracts; in 2026 year-to-date, it has exceeded 32,000 contracts, a growth rate of 45%. The instrument is growing conspicuously in popularity among hedgers and financial investors seeking to manage short-term price risk.
All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered legal advice, investment advice or the results of actual market experience. Where regulatory matters are summarized, they represent CME Group’s good faith understanding of the applicable requirements.