In the shadow of the profound changes on the demand side of the oil equation, precipitated by the rewriting of the global trade order, there are equally significant adjustments emerging on the supply side. Over the past 2 years, the producer alliance, known as OPEC+ with 12 OPEC nations and 10 producing countries outside the organization, have willingly given up market share in their attempt to tighten the global oil balance and as a consequence, support oil prices. And the result? The group’s market share declined from 46% to 41% as illustrated in the chart. In absolute terms, the reduction is around 5 mbpd. The move might have prevented prices from falling drastically, but it did not entail increasing revenues from petrodollars for member countries as oil prices failed to gain traction since the output constraints were implemented, quite the opposite.

It is against this backdrop that the producer group, led by Saudi Arabia, decided to add barrels back to the market at a faster pace than planned. For this month, 411,000 bpd of oil will be released versus the original schedule of 135,000 bpd and the month of June will also see the acceleration of this process. It appears that there is a U-turn in output strategy and now re-gaining market share, even if it is at the expense of stable prices, takes priority. In addition to the lack of upside potential, dismal compliance from disobedient members might be the main factor behind the move.

Whether the decision jeopardizes the group’s cohesion in the long term remains to be seen. The market was quick to react with a tangible weakening in outright prices in the last decade of April and at the beginning of May. It is intriguing to note that the backwardation in the U.S. crude oil benchmark, WTI, albeit narrowing, stayed comparatively solid, and it happened for a good reason. OPEC+ predominantly supplies heavier and sourer crude oil, which has a more pronounced adverse impact on other markers. The EIA, in its latest monthly report, predicted broadly unchanged OPEC+ market share in global supply throughout 2026. In the light of recent developments, this view will most likely be amended. More sour supply will be available. Whether outright prices will be negatively affected depends on several other factors, such as trade negotiations and demand estimates. What seems certain is that the U.S. benchmark, due to quality differences, will stay stronger relative to its international peers because of the OPEC+ strategy reversal.