Steel sheet prices, particularly HR coil, have continued to steadily march higher. Our current price assessment of $1,285/s.ton is up $59/s.ton from September, the largest monthly increase since March 2025, when President Trump reinstated S232 tariffs. HR coil prices are now at their highest level since May 2022.

Last month we noted evidence pointing towards supply tightness easing, which included rising import arrivals and the return of production that had been down for extended maintenance. However, new production issues have arisen from mid-September which further extended mill order backlogs and lead times. The primary issue as we understand it, is a reheating line at a large Southern mill is severely restricting production. Imports have continued to arrive at a higher pace than earlier in the year, yet the upward trend has flattened.

Buyers continued to be wary of the price risk that imports carry. This is both upside and downside risk, as government policy can quickly change to either increase tariffs or a new trade deal could suddenly be announced which would lower prices. Additionally, buyers remained hesitant to book imports as domestic prices remain competitive with high-quality imports from Canada and Mexico, while Asian-based exporters are raising prices due to local market conditions and rising freight and diesel costs. Domestic prices may look competitive, though many buyers continue to note that they remain unable to purchase contractual volumes while spot market material remains scarce.

The following chart shows the latest service centre data collected by Steel Market Update. We continue to see inventories in deficit for both August and September, based on preliminary data. However, the material on order component of this survey has averaged around 115% over the past five months compared with historic levels closer to 70%. While we expect seasonal demand to ease over the near term, this high level of order backlogs at mills is what continues to support prices.

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CME Group HR Coil futures have quickly shifted higher due to renewed domestic production issues.

CME Group HR Coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on October 12, 2026 Q4 futures are now pricing in $1,295/s.ton for HR coil, a m/m increase of $63/s.ton. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80/s.ton versus September, at $1,207/s.ton. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/s.ton.

While the forward curve has priced in minimal gains over the coming months from today’s spot price, what is notable is the 2027 Q4 price of $1,132/s.ton, just over a $150/s.ton decline from today’s spot price. This backwardation suggests the market is currently experiencing the tightest period of supply. Yet, as we have seen over the past few months, these longer-dated prices can quickly rise if supply remains constrained by further production issues or additional tariffs.

Mills continue to be focused on 2027 contracts, specifically on limiting discounts and achieving higher prices. While we expect supply to rise at a faster pace than demand over the coming year, these gains will take time to materialize. This timing may leave buyers and sellers with price risk exposure that can be hedged through the futures market. Indeed, both buyers and sellers may find value in locking in a known price for a portion of their volume to mitigate their risk.

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