Sheet buyers in the U.S. market continued to report that supply remained limited, though some mentioned that we may now be starting to see marginal improvement. These expectations have stemmed partly from incrementally higher domestic supply as evidenced by monthly contract volumes improving as well as spot availability in some cases. Physical evidence of any supply growth is limited due to lagging data, though buyers have pointed to recent mill earnings from Cleveland-Cliffs and U.S. Steel, which referenced an expectation of improved availability after recent or current maintenance outages end.

Meanwhile, import arrivals have risen from the lows seen in Q4 2025. The following chart compares light flat rolled arrivals (all flat rolled except cut-length plate, electrical and tinplate products) with arrivals of slab. Both have risen visibly over the past several months, though slab has risen the fastest, gaining just over 50% in Q2 2026 versus Q4 2025.

While supply may be starting to improve, sheet prices remained well supported. This support stemmed from an inventory deficit at service centres, while demand was underpinned by the data center buildout, reshored automotive steel demand and an overall rising trend of activity across multiple manufacturing segments.

Our August 12 price assessment of U.S. Midwest HR coil is $1,195 /s.ton, a gain of $48 /s.ton from our July 8 assessment. Prices of CR and HDG coil increased slightly faster, gaining $59 and $56 /s.ton, respectively. In addition to base HDG coil prices rising, we have also raised our zinc coating weight extra by $5 /s.ton to $105 /s.ton for a G90 coating on .06 inch substrate due to sustainably higher market prices of both zinc and the related Midwest premium.

  Back to Top

HR Coil futures from CME Group are now pricing in a stronger market through the balance of 2026 and 2027, creating an opportunity for price risk management.

HR Coil futures continue to show a near-term price peak, yet prices on the forward curve have increased for not only the balance of 2026, but for 2027 as well. As of market close on August 10, HR Coil futures for September through December 2026 had risen to an average of $1,188 /s.ton from $1,136 /s.ton on July 6. For 2026, actual settled prices through July and futures prices through December have priced in at an average of $1,107 /s.ton.

A year ago, the forward curve had priced in at an average of just $880 /s.ton. In hindsight, this was clearly an opportunity for buyers to lock in their price risk exposure through futures or via fixed-price contracts. Today, the 2027 forward curve is pricing in at an average of $1,085 /s.ton. This represents a discount of just over $100 /s.ton from current spot prices, which may be attractive for some buyers looking to mitigate a portion of their potential price risk exposure. And while spot prices are within a week of reaching their highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the forward curve in 2027 may also be attractive to natural sellers such as producers or distributors looking to lock in a portion of future sales.

These higher physical and futures prices have led to higher levels of open interest in these futures contracts. Overall open interest as of this past Monday was near 820,000 s.tons, a gain of 84.9% y/y. Open interest often fluctuates throughout the month. In July, it reached a peak of 905,260 tons before the July contracts settled. Daily trading volumes often reach 25,000 s.tons/day, which has grown to support price risk management throughout the supply chain.

  Back to Top