Sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest markets have continued to rise, with HR and CR coil gaining $45 and $43/s.ton, respectively, from our November 12 assessment, while base HDG coil gained $67/s.ton. Compared to recent lows between the end of September and early October, current sheet prices are now 10% to 12% higher. These price gains have come alongside continued mill price increases, while lead times remain extended. The most recent lead times from Steel Market Update as of November 25 have HR coil near six weeks, while CR and HDG coil products are near seven weeks.

While HR coil often garners the most attention, HDG coil prices have risen at a faster pace than HR and CR coil prices. This is partly due to the finalization of a recent AD/CVD trade case across multiple exporting countries, but more importantly, due to HDG coil prices falling at a faster pace from their April peak to Q3 low versus HR coil. For the past nine weeks, the spread between HDG and HR coil products has been below $100/s.ton versus an average of $157/s.ton in the prior 12 months.

HDG coil prices have also seen an increase in the zinc coating weight extra. This assessment is up $10/s.ton this week, as multiple mills have raised their coating weight extra prices due to higher LME zinc prices and refinery charges. The chart below shows these recent zinc prices. Our current price assessment for a G90 coating on .06-inch-thick substrate has increased from $85/s.ton to $95/s.ton.

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The trend of rising sheet prices in the physical U.S. market since the end of September continues to be reflected in the futures market, though gains over the past month have primarily been concentrated in Q1 2026.

The trend of rising sheet prices in the physical U.S. market since the end of September continues to be reflected in the futures market. However, gains since our November 10 review were primarily limited to Q1 2026. Futures prices for this period are up 3.2% m/m from an average of $897/s.ton to $925/s.ton.

For 2026 overall, HR Coil futures from CME Group, as of close on December 8, were an average of $896/s.ton. This compares to the 2025 settled price of $852/s.ton, inclusive of December at $908 as of close on December 8. The chart below compares these two measures, alongside the 2025 forward curve at this time last year.

The futures market is pricing in a stronger year in 2026 versus 2025 actuals, though capacity is set to rise from new and restarted furnaces. Natural sellers may find opportunity in hedging some price risk exposure to lock in a portion of these prices, particularly if they feel downside risks such as weaker than expected demand growth or the potential easing of a portion of S232 tariffs could negatively affect prices in 2026. Buyers may also find opportunity in the forward curve, particularly if demand rises faster than expected or if any disruption to supply emerges.

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