U.S. sheet prices have continued to fall on weak demand, while domestic capacity remains widely available.

Seasonally slower summer demand has persisted in August in the North American market, leading to lower sheet prices in the U.S., while prices in Mexico remained flat m/m. In the U.S., HR coil fell by the largest amount, falling to $838/s.ton, nearly $50/s.ton down from our July 9 price assessment. Price declines were also assessed for CR and HDG Coil products, albeit at only 1% and 3%, respectively.

This environment of weak demand may not just be seasonal as the top three sectors of sheet demand are all showing signs of weakness. Construction spending and automotive production are lower YTD, while the ISM PMI report has shown overall manufacturing activity in contraction since March.

At service centers, inventory remains in a surplus as larger buyers have continued to replenish inventory at prices below $800/s.ton for the past several weeks, rather than destock. This strategy has allowed them to cost-average their inventory with new purchases at attractive prices.

Market participants continue to report lower bookings of imports, preferring domestic mills due to the tariffs. However, new capacity appears to have increased faster than imports have fallen back. These overall market dynamics of weaker demand, rising domestic supply and excess inventories have continued to pressure prices.  

U.S. light flat-roll imports, t 

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The HR Coil futures market has inched higher for both the remainder of 2025 as well as all of 2026, yet various factors may soon lead to increased price volatility.

Near term values of the HR Coil futures contract from CME Group have increased with 2025 Q4 rising $18/s.ton to $845/s.ton. For 2026, futures are pricing in an average of $878/s.ton versus $854/s.ton in early July. These gains have come even though physical spot prices have fallen nearly $50/s.ton since July 9, reaching $838/s.ton today.

Though higher than current spot prices, futures contracts through 2026 may be in a good position for physical participants to hedge for the possibility of increased price volatility. So far this year, weekly HR coil prices have averaged $855/s.ton, with a high of $967/s.ton and a low of $680/s.ton. Average monthly prices surged 37% from January through April due to the revitalized S232 tariff. While these tariffs have now doubled from 25% to 50%, we have yet to see this change meaningfully affect spot prices in the physical market.

Instead, rising domestic capacity has come about alongside weaker end demand across multiple sectors. Yet if any demand gains materialize, physical prices could quickly jump back to highs seen earlier this year to incentivise imports from nearby markets. However, end demand may remain weak through the end of the year while trade deals are amended to effectively lower or eliminate the S232 tariffs for a portion of volume from a limited group of countries. If either or both factors are realized, HR coil prices may return towards lows of the year, seen this past January. Regardless of how the physical market evolves over the coming months, HR Coil futures may provide price risk management for physical market participants, allowing them to lock in a portion of their potential price risk.

U.S. Midwest HR coil vs. CME Group futures, $/st

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