Ultra 10 and Ultra Bond shine as long-end Treasury yields soar
With substantial yield moves shaking up the long end, Ultra 10-Year (TN) and Ultra Bond (UB) futures have seen strong inflows as participants seek precise, off-balance-sheet exposure directly to the bellwether 10-year and 30-year points on the curve.
- Both products reached new all-time open interest (OI) highs in August of nearly 3M contracts
- Inflows into the Ultra Bond have been especially pronounced with average OI +20% in 2026, compared to 4% growth for the overall complex
- YTD ADV exceeds 1.3M contracts between the two contracts (TN 824K, UB 508K), accounting for a record 17% of Treasury futures ADV
Ultra 10 options (OTN) are also growing, with OI topping 70,000 contracts. By providing precise non-linear exposure to the 10-year point of the curve, these options offer an increasingly attractive way to hedge duration risk, manage portfolio exposure or express directional views.
Markets split on September Fed decision ahead of CPI
Expectations surrounding the Fed’s September FOMC meeting continue to fluctuate as traders navigate data, inflation and limited forward guidance.
Markets are currently pricing a ~58% probability of a 25bp hike at next week’s meeting, raising the stakes for U.S. inflation data due to be released on Thursday (PPI) and Friday (CPI).
More in Interest Rates
Eris-istible growth: Swap futures positions top $800K contracts
Adoption of Eris Swap futures continues to accelerate with institutional-sized trades and record inflows attracting new end-users and liquidity providers into the ecosystem.
Recent milestones:
- Total OI > 800K ($80B notional)
- Front-month OI > 500K
- Record non-roll volume of 167K lots ($4.5M DV01 of outright risk traded) on Aug. 3
Plus, Eris options have seen OI grow to over 6K contracts since launch in June.
Credit futures up 164% as Leveraged Loan futures set to launch
Credit futures have continued their strong momentum in 2026, with trading volumes up 164% year to date. Growth has been driven by rising demand for transparent, capital-efficient tools for managing credit exposure.
The expansion of our Credit product suite will continue on September 14* with the launch of Liquid Leveraged Loan Index futures.
Is U.S. Treasury De Facto Easing Monetary Policy?
As U.S. fiscal and monetary policies diverge, the Treasury's accelerated issuance of short-term T-bills may be subtly loosening financial conditions despite the Fed's restrictive stance.
Chief economist Erik Norland explores whether current debt management strategies could potentially impact inflation expectations.
Data as of September 1, 2026, unless otherwise specified.
*Pending regulatory review
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