A first-rate year in review
With rate cuts from the Fed, cooling inflation, surging AI investment and shifting fiscal priorities, there was no shortage of risks to be managed for traders in 2025.
In this environment, our wide ranging Rates complex facilitated efficient risk transfer to a record level across a number of products, including an overall average daily volume (ADV) record for the year of over 14.2M.
Key highlights include:
- SOFR futures and options: ADV of nearly 5.4M, a third consecutive annual record.
- Treasury futures and options: ADV of 8.3M and average daily open interest (ADOI) of 29.6M, both new annual records.
- 2-Yr Treasury options: New all-time high in annual ADV with volume doubling vs. 2024.
- Eris SOFR Swap futures: Surging growth across the year, capped by open interest (OI) exceeding 630K for the first time ever in December.
Explore our full Interest Rate complex for your 2026 risk management needs.
Ultra 10 at 10: How we built a benchmark at the 10-year point on the curve
Since their debut 10 years ago this month, Ultra 10-Year Treasury Note futures have seen volumes rise to 700K a day with OI reaching roughly 2.5M contracts. This impressive liquidity, however, was not guaranteed when Ultra 10s launched a decade ago.
Discover how we built this benchmark, met the market's need for precise exposure at the 10-year point on the curve and its implications for risk management in the years to come.
The Q4 climb in Credit and TBAs
Both of these relatively young futures contracts took great leaps in adoption in 2025, particularly when looking at Q4.
For TBA futures, Q4's ADV nearly tripled YoY, while ADOI was up a similar percentage. In Credit, ADV soared by 170% in Q4 vs. the year ago period, while ADOI surged over 500%.
Both contracts benefited from strong liquidity during roll periods, as well as increased use of block/RFQ trading to scale into larger risk management positions.
The everyday hedge: Weeklies at 1M in OI
For the first time ever, annual average daily open interest (ADOI) for our suite of Weekly Treasury options eclipsed 1M, while ADV set a new record of over 570K contracts.
With offerings every weekday, traders have a precise way to manage risk or express a view no matter what's on the calendar. Read our FAQ for additional details, or get more information on the Weekly options home page.
More in Interest Rates
What's ahead for 2026?
By Erik Norland
Nearly every central bank in the world continued to ease policy in 2025, with the exceptions of the Bank of Japan and Banco Central do Brasil. The easing by global central banks pulled shorter-term bond yields lower.
However, beyond the 5Y point on the yield curve, bond yields were generally more supported, rising substantially at the long end of the curve in many countries.
Central banks easing policy despite almost universally above-target inflation appears to be generating concern among long-term bond investors. Some believe that central banks may not be prioritizing price stability to the same extent as they did in the decades leading up to the pandemic.
In addition to investor concerns about central bank easing, nearly every major economy is experiencing abnormally large fiscal deficits for this stage of the economic cycle.
Looking ahead to 2026, a number of points of uncertainty will be on investors minds, including:
1) Will inflation remain above target? If so, will some central banks reverse course and raise rates?
2) How will turnover in the leadership of the Federal Reserve influence the evolution of U.S. monetary policy?
3) If central banks continue to ease policy in the face of large budget deficits and above-target inflation, will this cause long-term bond yields to trend higher?
4) Will investors demand higher yields in exchange for absorbing large quantities of debt issuance?
As answers to these questions come into focus, interest rate markets have a greater potential for volatility this year than they had in 2024 or 2025.
Mid-2026 launch cleared for CMESC
New SEC rules will mandate central clearing at the end of the year for eligible Treasury securities. Our new, regulatory-approved securities clearing service, CMESC, will help you navigate these changes in a capital-efficient way.
For more information on CMESC, including educational webinars, clearing rules and the full plan details, visit our website.
Master the curve: 3 power tools for rates traders in 2026
Looking for additional ways to analyze rates markets? These powerful tools are your next step to new insights.
STIR Analytics: Access real-time pricing and live basis spreads between SOFR, Fed Funds, T-Bills and €STR futures.
Total Cost Analysis Tool: Discover the difference between all-in costs across key Rates products.
Open Interest Heatmap: Get a concise view of put/call OI to help you better understand where positions are concentrated.
Data as of Janaury 2, 2026, unless otherwise specified.
View an archive of the Rates Recap online at cmegroup.com/ratesrecap.
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