- 11 Sep 2025
- By CME Group
- Topics: Interest Rates
Outsized trading activity across the USD curve has driven futures open interest (OI) to its highest level ever of 42M contracts, as market uncertainty has put efficient risk transfer front-and-center for participants.
Treasury futures reached a record 24.8M, with new all-time highs in ZT, ZF, TN, ZB, UB.
Source: CME Group
SOFR futures OI reached 14.9M, with new highs in both Three-Month SOFR (SR3) and One-Month SOFR (SR1) futures.
- Flagship SR3 futures OI surged to 13.3M, having added 2.3M since the June IMM – on pace to be the largest quarterly inflow on record.
- SR1 OI jumped 50% since the last monthly expiration, surpassing 1.8M for the first time.
Source: CME Group
Explore free analytics on these markets:
The Fed's dual mandate is being put to the test as inflation continues to run a bit hot while employment numbers are lagging. These trends have led to oscillating numbers from FedWatch, as participants continue to digest economic data and shift expectations, leading to widely dispersed target rate probabilities for the Fed meeting a year from now.
Source: CME Group
Keep an eye on FedWatch as additional data comes in and learn more about how uncertainty is shaping the Fed's path for the rest of 2025.
Bolstered by the first derived block trade, Credit futures are reaching new highs in activity. OI has surpassed 6,800 contracts for the first time, which represents ~76% growth from the Q2 high.
Source: CME Group
As the ecosystem continues to deepen, explore our block market maker list for more on scaling into a position in Credit futures markets.
With heightened macro uncertainty and a flood of T-Bill issuance, two of the five most active days in 2025 for T-Bill futures came in August.
Learn more about how these contracts can precisely hedge the short end of the curve and more about spreading against other STIR benchmarks.
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Data as of September 1, 2025, unless otherwise specified.
Credit futures data as of September 8, 2025.
View an archive of the Rates Recap online at cmegroup.com/ratesrecap.
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