The opinions expressed in this report are those of Inspirante Trading Solutions Pte Ltd (“ITS”) and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Full disclaimers are available at the end of this report.
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Highlights
Upcoming economic events (Singapore Local Time):
|
Date |
Time |
Venue |
| 2025-08-12 | 20:30 | U.S. CPI (Jul) |
| 2025-08-14 | 20:30 |
U.S. PPI (Jul) |
| 2025-08-15 | 20:30 |
U.S. Retail Sales (Jul) |
| 2025-08-15 | 22:00 | U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug) |
| 2025-08-21 - 2025-08-23 |
Jackson Hole Symposium |
|
Market snapshots
Figure 1: Gold Futures (Dec 2025 Contract)
The gold price broke topside from a multi-month symmetrical triangle. A sustained hold above the upper trendline keeps the uptrend in play; a daily close back inside the triangle would flag a failed breakout.
Figure 2: Nikkei 225 (JPY) Futures
Nikkei 225 index is retesting a major horizontal resistance near 42,000 with a series of higher lows underneath (ascending base). A decisive close above the resistance would point to a fresh leg higher.
Figure 3: Platinum Futures (Weekly)
The platinum price has cleared a multi-year ceiling near 1,300 and is back-testing that zone from above. Holding the support suggests that breakout is still intact with room to extend.
Figure 4: EUR/GBP Futures
A potential cup-and-handle has formed for EUR/GBP pair, as 0.875 serves as an important resistance. A decisive close above the resistance would likely resume the uptrend.
Beyond the charts
The shoe has finally dropped.
“It’s midnight!!! Billions of dollars in tariffs are now flowing into the United States of America!” President Trump announced on Truth Social, moments after the higher rates kicked in. Yet, to many people’s surprise, markets barely flinched. Global equities rose across the board—U.S., EU, Japan, China—all higher. Only India lagged.
Why so calm? Partly headline fatigue, but mostly clarity. Markets dislike uncertainty more than bad news; once the rules are clear, companies can plan, invest and move forward.
Japan offers a textbook example. After talks with U.S. Cabinet officials in Washington, Japanese negotiators secured two key assurances: goods already taxed at 15% or more would face no additional duty, and all other tariffs would be capped at 15%. Both sides even agreed on how to interpret the fine print. Within days, the European Union struck a similar deal.
The response was immediate. Japan’s TOPIX index climbed past 3,000, and the Nikkei 225 is now within striking distance of its all-time high—this despite political uncertainty after the recent Upper House election. Clarity clears the runway.
But tariffs aren’t the only front where history is echoing. The U.S. Cabinet has been increasingly vocal about the Federal Reserve, with President Trump pressing Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates and loosen financial conditions. Striking déjà vu.
We noted back in early 2024 that today’s inflation backdrop already looked uncomfortably like the 1970s, when America endured three distinct waves of rising prices. Now, the parallels are multiplying.
On August 15, 1971, President Nixon declared a national emergency under Proclamation 4074, slapped a 10% ad valorem duty on all imports and ordered Treasury Secretary John Connally to suspend the dollar’s convertibility into gold—effectively dismantling Bretton Woods. Nixon also leaned on Fed Chair Arthur Burns to ease policy ahead of the 1972 election. Burns resisted…until he didn’t, and inflation’s next wave was set in motion. Still, the parallels to that era—tariff shocks and political heat on the Fed—are uncomfortably close.
The “Nixon shock” shredded the dollar’s purchasing power, in gold terms, by nearly 95% over the next decade. Today, gold is again hovering near record highs, its uptrend intact. As financial writer Jim Grant once observed, “Gold ought not to trade as an inflation hedge, but as an investment in monetary disorder, of which the world has plenty.”
And right now, disorder is something the markets have in abundance.
A hypothetical guide: from ideas to application
We conclude with the following hypothetical trades:1
Case study 1: long Gold futures
If one holds a bullish view of gold, one could consider taking a long position in Gold (GC) futures at the current price of 3,495, with a stop-loss below 3,425, a hypothetical maximum loss of 3,495 – 3,425 = 70 points if the breakout fails to materialize. Looking at Figure 1, if the breakout from the symmetrical triangle is confirmed, gold prices have the potential to reach 3,600, resulting in 3,600 – 3,495 = 105 points. Each Gold futures contract represents 100 troy ounces, and each point move is 100 USD. E-mini and Micro Gold futures contracts are also available at ½ and 1/10 of the standard contract size, respectively.
Case study 2: long Nikkei 225 futures
If one holds a bullish view of Nikkei 225 index, one could consider taking a long position in Nikkei 225 futures at the current price of 42,000, with a stop-loss below 39,600, a hypothetical maximum loss of 42,000 – 39,600 = 2,400 points if the breakout fails to materialize. Looking at Figure 2, if the breakout of the overhead resistance is confirmed, Nikkei 225 index has the potential to reach 46,000, resulting in 46,000 – 42,000 = 4,000 points. Each point move of the Nikkei 225 futures contract is 500 JPY. Micro Nikkei futures contract is also available at 1/10 of the standard contract size.
1 Examples cited above are for illustration only and shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Please refer to full disclaimers at the end of the commentary.
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