The opinions expressed in this report are those of Inspirante Trading Solutions Pte Ltd (“ITS”) and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Full disclaimers are available at the end of this report.
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Highlights
Upcoming economic events (Singapore Local Time):
|
Date |
Time |
Venue |
| 2025-07-29 | 22:00 | U.S. JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) |
| 2025-07-31 | 02:00 |
FED Interest Rate Decision |
| 2025-07-31 | 09:30 |
China Manufacturing PMI (Jul) |
| 2025-08-01 | 20:30 | U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) |
| 2025-08-07 | 11:00 |
China Balance of Trade (Jul) |
Market snapshots
Figure 1: Nasdaq to Russell 1000 ratio (Weekly)
The Nasdaq-to-Russell 1000 ratio continues to climb in 2025, highlighting the growing divergence in performance between tech giants and smaller U.S. companies.
Figure 2: Crude Oil futures
After decisively breaking below a multi-year descending triangle, crude oil briefly spiked above the neckline amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. However, as the conflict eased, prices quickly retreated to the neckline, reinforcing the overall bearish trend.
Figure 3: Platinum futures
A bearish rising wedge in platinum signals waning buying momentum following its tremendous rally in recent months. A break below could trigger a pullback toward previous pivot zone between 1200 and 1300.
Figure 4: Gold to Platinum ratio (Weekly)
The Gold-Platinum ratio has collapsed sharply in recent months, now retesting a key support zone between 2.2 and 2.4, previously a major resistance area, hinting at potential stabilization.
Beyond the charts
The latest earnings season has injected fresh optimism into U.S. equity markets, reinforcing the view that ongoing tariff disputes have yet to materially disrupt corporate performance. This resilience is especially evident in the technology sector, where earnings growth remains strong, and in financials, where major banks have exceeded expectations on the back of robust trading and investment banking revenues. This strength has helped propel the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 to new all-time highs; despite the small caps’ struggle to recover.
On the trade front, a key driver of market sentiment was President Trump's decision to postpone the scheduled tariff hikes on July 9, extending the deadline to August 1 for 14 countries. While this move offers temporary relief, it also perpetuates uncertainty. Still, the repeated delays have led to the emergence of a market acronym, TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out, a tongue-in-cheek reminder of how markets now routinely price in last-minute tariff reprieves. This dynamic has bolstered risk-on sentiment, with investors increasingly betting against the possibility of a full-blown trade escalation.
This cautious optimism has spilled over into commodities, particularly crude oil. Prices surged recently amid fears that geopolitical tensions could lead to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supply. But the rally proved short-lived, as tensions eased, crude quickly reversed and resumed its longer-term bearish trend. The broader backdrop remains challenging, with rising global inventories and weakening demand expectations amid cooling growth forecasts.
Even as equities find renewed footing, safe-haven demand remains elevated. Gold continues to break records, a reflection of persistent macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Platinum has also seen a sharp rally, driven by constrained mining supply, tighter inventories and increased industrial demand. The surge in platinum has narrowed the Gold-Platinum ratio to levels last seen in early 2024, hinting at a possible reversal. With platinum appearing stretched, some capital rotation back into gold seems likely as investors reassess relative value.
Looking ahead, the market remains caught between strong earnings momentum and lingering policy risks. Until there’s firm evidence of a global downturn, markets are likely to continue exhibiting knee-jerk reactions to headline risks; bouncing between relief and retreat. For now, earnings strength and tariff delays are enough to keep investors hopeful, but the simultaneous surge in precious metals shows that investors haven’t abandoned their hedge.
A hypothetical guide: from ideas to application
We conclude with the following hypothetical trades:1
Case study 1: Short Crude Oil futures
If we hold a bearish view towards crude oil amid rising global inventories and weakening demand expectations, we would consider taking a short position in Micro WTI Crude Oil (MCL) futures at the current price of 65.30, with a stop-loss above 68.00, a hypothetical maximum loss of 68.00 – 65.30 = 2.70 points. Looking at Figure 2, WTI crude oil has the potential to trace back to its recent low of 56.00, resulting in 65.30 – 56.00 = 9.30 points. Each Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contract represents 100 barrels, and each point move is 100 USD. The standard WTI Crude Oil futures contract is available as well.
Case study 2: Short Platinum futures
Similarly, if we think the price of platinum appears stretched at its current level, we would consider taking a short position in Platinum (PL) futures ( at the hypothetical price level of 1483, with a stop-loss above 1515, a hypothetical maximum loss of 1515 – 1483 = 32 points. Looking at Figure 3, platinum has the potential to trace back to its previous consolidation zone at 1300, resulting in 1483 – 1300 = 183 points. Each Platinum futures contract represents 50 troy ounces, and each point move is 50 USD. The Micro Platinum (PLM) futures contract is also available at 10 troy ounces.
1 Examples cited above are for illustration only and shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Please refer to full disclaimers at the end of the commentary.
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