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EUR/USD has broken out of a long-term descending channel, closing above the upper trendline for the first time since 2008. This signals a potential major trend reversal with next resistance around 1.25–1.30.

S&P 500 has broken out to new highs above a clear horizontal resistance zone near 6,200, confirming an extended bullish continuation. Previous range support around 5,800 remains the key invalidation level.

Silver is consolidating in a small diamond formation after breaking out above the 36.00 resistance zone. A bullish resolution could extend the trend toward new highs if the diamond pattern breaks to the upside.

Soybean oil has reclaimed a major horizontal resistance area around 52–55 after a long base, suggesting a potential trend reversal. A sustained hold above this zone could target the 60–65 area next.

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It’s the long Fourth of July weekend — a moment of calm in an otherwise eventful year for markets. With things quieting down, it’s an apt time to pause and reflect on the first half of 2025. In a macro environment like this, it’s not uncommon for investors to feel fatigued by the constant barrage of headlines. But if we look through the noise, we can see some defining moments that help explain how we got to where we are today.

The year began with the tariff war in full swing, culminating on Liberation Day and China’s quick retaliatory measures in early April. The market was truly in turmoil: on April 9, the global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank warned that “we are witnessing a simultaneous collapse in the price of all U.S. assets, including equities, the dollar versus alternative reserve FX and the bond market. We are entering uncharted territory in the global financial system.” Unbeknownst to many, that very day marked the low for U.S. equities. A 90-day tariff pause was announced, triggering a staggering V-shaped rebound that has, so far, continued with little resistance.

The resilience of the equity market has been nothing short of remarkable, especially considering that an armed conflict between Iran and Israel broke out in June. Crude oil prices spiked above $77 per barrel — 40% higher than the April low — yet despite the unprecedented tension and talk of a possible World War III, equities remained largely unfazed throughout those tense two weeks.

Now, as we settle into the quiet summer season, the latest headline is that the U.S. Congress has finally passed the Big Beautiful Bill. Looking ahead to when people return from their holidays, we face the end of the tariff pause and the likely risk of renewed trade tensions. Meanwhile, the ongoing dispute between Elon Musk — once a strong supporter — and President Trump continues to generate headlines, adding to the sense of fatigue.

Amid all this, one major trend that, in our view, has not fully run its course yet is the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Domestically, the deficit keeps growing as the administration focuses on trying to grow out of its debt rather than actively reducing it. As the debt spiral deepens — coupled with President Trump’s persistent pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates — the prospects for a stronger dollar look increasingly dim. Globally, America-first trade policies have strained relationships with long-term foreign investors, particularly in Europe and Japan. We’re seeing the early stages of capital repatriation and a broader shift toward de-dollarization, as more countries and investors diversify away from U.S. assets. This trend is worth monitoring closely, as it not only adds pressure on the dollar but also creates pockets of opportunity in less-traded or overlooked assets that stand to benefit as capital finds new homes.

That said, the U.S. dollar has already seen a steep decline since February. Nothing moves in a straight line, so a counter-trend rebound wouldn’t be surprising. Therefore, to express a bearish U.S. dollar view, we believe that directly trading the major currency pairs doesn’t offer the best risk/reward profile at this stage. Instead, building long positions in commodities, which tend to have an inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar, could be a more compelling way to capture this trend. If the dollar weakens further, many commodities may just be getting started on their upward move.

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We conclude with the following hypothetical trades:¹

Case study 1: Long Silver futures

If we hold the view that commodities will rise amid de-dollarization, we would consider taking a long position in Silver (SIU5) futures at the current price of 37, with a stop-loss below 35, a hypothetical maximum loss of 37 – 35 = 2 points. Looking at Figure 3, if the breakdown of the continuation diamond pattern is confirmed, silver prices have the potential to reach 40, resulting in 40 – 37 = 3 points. Each Silver futures contract represents 5,000 troy ounces of silver, and each point move is 5,000 USD. E-mini and Micro Silver futures contracts are also available at ½ and 1/5 of the standard contract size, respectively.

Case study 2: Long Soybean Oil futures

Similarly, if we hold the view that the price of soybean oil will rise, we would consider taking a long position in Soybean Oil (ZLZ5) futures at the current price of 54.6, with a stop-loss below 50.6, a hypothetical maximum loss of 54.6 – 50.6 = 4 points. Looking at Figure 4, if the breakout from the rounding bottom is confirmed, soybean oil prices have the potential to reach 64.6, resulting in 64.6 – 54.6 = 10 points. Each Soybean Oil futures contract represents 60,000 pounds, and each point move is 600 USD. Micro Soybean Oil futures contract is also available at 1/10 of the standard contract size.

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We correctly called the top near the upper resistance in April, as price reversed sharply from the 5.20 area to below 4.10. Copper is now retesting that same resistance — a decisive breakout or rejection here will be key.

We called the decline in early May as price broke below and retested the support, but the unexpected Iran-Israel conflict in June triggered a sharp reversal back above the key support zone. Price action remains choppy around this reclaimed level — highlighting the impact of geopolitical shocks on technical setups.

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Russell 2000 broke above key horizontal resistance and completed an inverse Head-and-Should bottom, confirming a bullish breakout. Prior range lows around 2,050 now act as a strong support.

Nikkei is retesting the major horizontal resistance at around 41,000 after forming an inverse Head-and-Shoulder breakout. A sustained push above could open a new leg higher.

Gold is coiling within an ascending triangle with clear horizontal resistance near 3,500. A breakout above could trigger a continuation of the broader uptrend.

Platinum broke out strongly above a long-held range at 900 to 1,100 and is now trending sharply higher. The old range top should act as solid support on any pullback.

10Y T-Notes remain stuck in a broad sideways range between 108.0 and 116.0. No clear trend until a decisive break in either direction.

Corn bounced back sharply after a false breakdown below key horizontal support around 430. A sustained recovery could trap shorts and spark a squeeze higher.

Soybean meal remains under pressure after losing support at 300. The failed retest keeps the trend biased lower.

Natural gas continues to chop inside a wide horizontal range between 3.4 and 4.2. A decisive break of this range could define the next major move.

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¹ Examples cited above are for illustration only and shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Please refer to full disclaimers at the end of the commentary.

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