The CME Group Agriculture Index (CMEAG) tracks the global agricultural complex via CME Group-listed volume-weighted continuous futures prices. The index covers five sectors: grains, oilseeds, livestock, dairy and lumber. This multicommodity construction delivers a proportional reflection of the broader agricultural economy while insulating the aggregate performance from specific single-asset volatility.

Source: CME Group

The Agriculture Index posted 6.37% returns in the month of August 2026 on the back of high energy prices resulting from the U.S.-Israel Iran War. Since the beginning of this tumultuous year, the CME Group Agriculture Index has exhibited remarkable 16.16% growth drawn from geopolitical tensions, supply-side constraints and policy-driven demand. 

The CME Group Agriculture Index employs a volume-weighted calculation, meaning that constituent products with larger trade volume can more easily move the index as a whole. This month has been notable in the strong movement from some of the Index’s largest constituent products, with Chicago Wheat, Corn and KC Wheat each surpassing 15% returns and the Soybean complex surpassing 5% returns. Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM), while low in volume weighting, has exhibited extremely strong price growth over the year, indicating shifting demand within the realm of milk components and processing. Livestock by and large quieted in August off of early 2026 highs, and lumber slumped on stagnant home builds.

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August 2026 was a blockbuster month for grains and oilseed futures pricing, with each major grain and oilseed benchmark product exhibiting significant growth in rolling front-month futures. While grains and oilseeds grown in the United States generally see their highest annual prices during the summer months as the prior year’s ending stocks dwindle and the growing season is not yet at the new crop harvest, this August was met with remarkably strong price action attributable largely to geopolitical tensions.

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Farmers in the major corn and soybean growing regions of the United States told the Financial Times this month that they are facing the “worst crisis in 40 years,” as high energy and fertilizer costs connected to the Iran War squeeze margins. Diesel fuel prices, for example, have surged more than 40% since the onset of the war in commodity crop-growing regions. Despite trade tensions, corn exports are projected to sit steady at 20% of production this year. Monthly ethanol production has been strong in 2026, contributing to the recent boost in prices. According to the USDA Crop Progress report, corn maturation in the United States is aligned with the five-year average as of end-August, with 57% of the national crop estimated at good-or-excellent condition: a moderate measure. 

The monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) tends to be particularly impactful in August, with the month bringing the first observational data for many field crops including corn and soybeans. This August proved bullish for both Corn and Soybean futures as corn yield, soybean yield and corn ending stocks fell below industry expectations.

The story of the Soybean complex in August 2026 is one of overcoming headwinds before the national crop of soybeans faces its annual harvest this autumn. While the national soybean yield forecast was trimmed slightly in the August WASDE, an expanded harvested area raised projected domestic ending stocks. Despite larger supply estimates, continuous Soybean futures posted over 8% returns across the month, supported by strong domestic crush margins and steady international purchases.

Market sentiment underpinning Soybean Oil futures this past month, as usual, was driven by biofuel policy signals. In late August, industry concern emerged following reports of potential Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Small Refinery Exemptions under the Renewable Fuel Standard, which threatened to reduce domestic biomass-based diesel demand. High domestic crush output and industrial demand, however, provided fundamental price support. Soybean Meal futures were in turn supported by high export commitments and steady livestock feed usage.

While the surge in Corn and Soybean futures prices can be in large part attributable to the Iran War, wheat prices jumped this month on news from another war: that in Ukraine. While the impact of Russia’s War on Ukraine has at times tempered since the initial 2022 shock to wheat markets, this past month’s major disruptions to exports from both Russia and Ukraine has sent prices for Chicago Wheat, widely viewed as a proxy for global winter wheat markets, soaring. According to local government data, agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia are down 75% and 50% year on year respectively due to damages to port infrastructure and other war-related disruptions. Making matters worse in global wheat markets, El Niño has had a negative effect on international harvests, tightening supplies after El Niño midwestern dryness yielded exceptionally small U.S. production of soft (Chicago) and hard (KC) red winter wheats.

August’s bullish wave continued through rice, as Rough Rice futures rose to 18-month highs and posted 9.33% returns this month. Rice market gains were underpinned by international weather uncertainties: notably erratic monsoon rainfall across major producing regions in India, a competing market, which prompted domestic traders to price in yield risk premiums for the 2026/27 crop year. 

In August 2026, Oat contract markets were characterized by shifting supply dynamics across North America and Europe. Early in the month, nearby contract prices drifted lower, touching multi-week lows against strong U.S. and European stocks post-harvest. Market sentiment turned during the second half of the month as supply tightness concerns emerged due to a reported drop in Canadian oat seeded area noted by Statistics Canada, alongside localized cool, wet weather that delayed harvesting across Western Canada. These North American supply constraints fueled a late-month rally that lifted nearby futures and supported an overall monthly return of nearly 13%.

The U.S. cattle market of recent years has been characterized by record-high prices, supported by constrained domestic supply and resilient consumer demand for beef. In July 2026, cattle began to soften, a trend that continued through August. Declining from earlier highs, the cattle suite has faced post-holiday summer doldrums, extreme heat, and key policy developments including the phased reopening of the Southern border to cattle imports and a temporary 90-day tariff suspension on lean beef trim imports. Meanwhile, lean hogs remained on a downward trajectory, down 1.38% in August due to persistent sluggish demand, pulling down our broader Livestock complex.

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This August, cattle markets evaluated competing market signals, as August 24 marked the beginning of the phased re-opening of the Southern border in the U.S. to Mexican live cattle. That same week, the market absorbed both a seemingly bullish Cattle on Feed report and the administration’s announcement of a temporary 90-day duty-free allowance for up to 300,000 metric tons of lean beef imports starting September 1.

The August USDA Cattle on Feed Report estimated total cattle on feed at 11.12 million head, up year over year but slightly below pre-report expectations. July feedlot placements came in sharply lower than expectations at 1.42 million head, while July marketings aligned with pre-report estimates at 1.62 million head. While the placement data pointed toward tighter future supplies, the simultaneous announcement of beef trim import policy created headwind pressure and market uncertainty. Tight domestic cattle inventories persist in support of strong market fundamentals; however, changing policy from the current administration has created mixed signals and stirred uncertainty within the market.

Lean hogs drifted lower over August, reflecting typical seasonal weakness alongside soft demand fundamentals. Hog prices historically ease in late summer and early fall, as more hogs reach market weight and marketings pick up. According to USDA estimates, heavier dressed weights continue to offset slightly lower hog slaughter numbers, keeping overall U.S. pork production moderately above year-ago levels. However, domestic consumer demand remains sluggish, leaving the market focused on whether the typical boost of post-Labor Day demand appears.

Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) rebounded from the price dip it experienced in late July and early August, marking nearly double returns year-to-date. While the United States is still relatively well-supplied on overall raw milk, a few factors are limiting the supply of NFDM and driving NFDM – and therefore, Class IV Milk –  prices higher. First, the demand for high-protein dairy products such as whey and whey protein concentrate means milk is being diverted into Class III. Second, the start of school propelled the seasonal demand for fluid Class I milk. Finally, the drop in NFDM prices from late July through early August spurred significant export demand, adding support to the price starting in the middle of the month.

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The USDA Cold Storage Report released in late August (reflecting July 31 inventories) showed that butter stocks are down 7% year over year and down 1% month over month, keeping total storage volume relatively lean. Cheese stocks are up 1% from June, but down 1% from July 2025. Steady domestic retail demand held cheese inventories stable and offered some underlying support to Cheese and Class III Milk prices.

From late July into August 2026, the North American lumber market shifted from stable range-bound trading into a notable downturn in both demand and pricing. Lumber futures, reflecting the price of spruce-pine-fir (SPF) softwood, broke down through late summer, retreating from the low-to-mid $600s per thousand board feet in July down to a 17-week low near $560 by late August.

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A few factors are at play when examining the pricing downturn. The primary engine for lumber consumption – the housing market – lost momentum, according to U.S. Census Bureau housing data. July housing starts plunged 12.4% from June’s numbers and 13.5% from July 2025, led by a steep pullback in single-family homebuilding. Given that summer is the peak season for physical usage, the sharp slowdown in housing starts and construction signals diminished demand overall. Relatively high mortgage rates, affordability concerns, and potential tariff impacts from broken U.S.-Canada trade talks continued to keep both new residential construction and remodeling activity down, putting pressure on softwood lumber prices.