The CME Group Agriculture Index (CMEAG) tracks the global agricultural complex via CME Group-listed volume-weighted continuous futures prices. The index covers five sectors: grains, oilseeds, livestock, dairy and lumber. This multicommodity construction delivers a proportional reflection of the broader agricultural economy while insulating the aggregate performance from specific single-asset volatility.

Source: CME Group

Posting net gains of more than 13% year to date by October 2026, the CME Group Agriculture Index experienced a correction of 2.66% over the month of September, led by falling prices for major Grain and Oilseed benchmarks.

August and early September were notable due to a surge in Grain and Oilseed futures and a concurrent decline in Cattle futures, but recent weeks flipped that script. Bearish USDA reports and sell-offs in late September put downward pressure on Grains and Oilseed contracts, while supply-side tightness lifted Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle and Soybean Meal. Although major grains fell in September – notably Corn, Chicago SRW Wheat and KC HRW Wheat futures – October prices still sit higher than those of early to mid summer for many benchmarks.

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The month of September 2026 proved bearish for major Grain and Oilseed futures, in particular for highly liquid and widely supplied benchmarks Corn, Chicago SRW and KC HRW Wheat futures. Leading the pack in September 2026 pricing among CME Agriculture Index constituents is Oat futures, which posted gains of over 12% on the month.

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Corn futures, the world’s most liquid exchange-traded agricultural commodity, fell in the latter half of September after an extraordinary summer, losing nearly 4% on September 30, 2026, alone following a bearish USDA NASS Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Media reported the average trade expectation for the report at 1.924 billion bushels, below the report release of 2.095 billion bushels. Beyond exceeding expectation, the September number was 35% above the year prior, indicating historically high stocks and thus ample supply to satisfy what proved this summer to be strong demand. As of early October, many corn-growing regions of the U.S. midwest are experiencing soggy conditions during what should be the kickoff to the annual harvest, on top of last month’s lower-than-expected yield forecasting on the part of the USDA. This month’s forthcoming Crop Progress reports will tell if quality suffers further due to weather, potentially boosting Corn futures once again.

Soybean stocks fell somewhat below expectations for the September 30, 2026 report, sustaining prices and netting flat for continuous Soybean futures on the month. Soybean Meal rose along with livestock prices due to its primary use for animal feed. Soybean Oil futures softened from summer peaks underlied by strong biomass-based diesel demand.

Chicago SRW Wheat and KC HRW Wheat futures, the bullish darlings of the summer, have led declines among components to the CME Group Agriculture Index this past month as 2026 enters autumn. Chicago and KC Wheat futures are both underlied by winter wheat, which is planted in the autumn and harvested in summer; with Chicago Wheat generally seeing deliveries of the soft red winter variety used in packaged baked goods and KC HRW Wheat underlied by high-protein hard red winter wheat used for all-purpose flour. Summer prices were supported by a growing season adversely affected by conditions, though with the winter wheat harvest completed by September, the market fundamentals most at play this month were stocks and trade.

According to USDA Export Sales and Export Inspections data, U.S. wheat export commitments trailed the prior year's pace significantly, as recent elevated U.S. prices hindered international competitiveness. While the September WASDE and NASS Quarterly Grain Stocks reports reflected supply tightness, the USDA simultaneously raised projected global ending stocks, suppressing global prices and dampening fears of shortages due to political instability in the Black Sea region.

Like winter wheat, rice and oats have completed their harvest by summer end, mitigating the effects of weather on price in the near-term and putting special emphasis on stocks and trade as market movers. In Oat futures, which rolled to a December front-month in mid-September, word is all about Canadian supply and this month’s intel suggesting bullishly low production.

Rice has been met with particular challenges this year as adverse growing conditions battered production and quality. The mid-month USDA ERS Rice Outlook raised its all-supply estimates for the marketing year, but kept levels at a four-year low, sustaining prices. 

After pulling back in August, the U.S. cattle market rebounded over the month of September, with Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle futures both performing positively in terms of price. Over the summer, the U.S. cattle market experienced a barrage of market-moving headlines and policy announcements, while September proved to be a quieter month regarding headline risk. Fewer headlines and policy announcements may indicate that market supply and demand fundamentals had a more direct impact on pulling prices upward. Meanwhile, despite a relatively bullish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published by the USDA, Lean Hog futures continued downward, signaling that price movement in the complex may be more demand-driven. Ultimately, the strong performance across Feeder and Live Cattle futures provided support to the Livestock complex over September, while Lean Hogs continued to drag.

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Over September, Feeder and Live Cattle futures markets showed some recovery from the slump seen over the late summer months. Fewer announcements from the administration allowed fundamentals to drive market direction, as September's Cattle on Feed report indicated primarily bullish figures. Placements were reported significantly under expectations, totaling 1.62 million head, 9% lower year over year. Marketings were reported slightly above expectations, albeit down 3% year over year. With placements falling faster than marketings, the number of total animals on feed is likely to come down, indicating relief for supply has not yet arrived. Ultimately, a bullish Cattle on Feed report is apparent in September's performance. Supply story aside, reports of Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity near Kansas packing plants deterred some employees from work, impacting packing capacity. It remains to be seen how packing capacity continues and how typical price weakness in Q4 will appear in light of continued supply constraints.

Lean Hog continuous futures continued on a downward trajectory during September, despite the September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report stating that total U.S. inventory of hogs and pigs was down 2% year-over-year across both breeding inventory, which was down 1% year over year, and market hog inventory, which was down 2% year over year. With sows farrowed down 3% year over year and near-term September – November farrowing intentions down as well, inventory pressure is likely to continue. In spite of lower supply pressures, Lean Hog futures struggle to find relief in prices, indicating that weakened demand is dominating any signs of constrained supply.

Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) rebounded from the price dip it experienced in late July and early August, marking nearly double returns year-to-date. While the United States is still relatively well-supplied on overall raw milk, a few factors are limiting the supply of NFDM and driving NFDM – and therefore, Class IV Milk –  prices higher. First, the demand for high-protein dairy products such as whey and whey protein concentrate means milk is being diverted into Class III. Second, the start of school propelled the seasonal demand for fluid Class I milk. Finally, the drop in NFDM prices from late July through early August spurred significant export demand, adding support to the price starting in the middle of the month.

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Within the Dairy complex, Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM) continues to be the story of 2026. Both supply and demand factors contributed to a further price increase in September, pushing values over $2.00 per pound. Physical liquid milk was diverted to Class I channels, leaving less product for processing. Of the product that remained for Class II, Class III and Class IV production, priority was given to protein-rich higher-margin goods, leaving less supply for dryers. Additionally, demand surged as international buyers looked to the U.S. amid relative shortages in other production areas, and domestic buyers looked to secure products for fall and holiday processing. This strong price move in NFDM lifted the value of Class IV even though butter, the other component of Class IV milk, experienced price decreases.

Continuous Class III Milk futures present a different picture. The milk supplied to cheese plants was relatively plentiful as yields and butterfat content went up after the summer heat, but cheese demand failed to keep pace with supply. This combination of excess supply and sluggish demand pulled down the Class III complex overall. In addition, the production of cheese left a large supply of cream to be turned into whey and funneled into butter, leading to a surge in butter production and a decrease in price.

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Continuous Lumber futures have remained relatively stable through much of the second half of 2026, but have experienced some recent headwinds that drove prices down slightly. Wholesale lumber supply continues to be robust enough to fulfil demand, so mills have proactively instituted some curtailments to avoid an oversupply at the retail level. Seasonally, the market tends to see shifts away from new construction and framing as the weather cools. This normal downturn in demand was coupled with steady increases in home mortgage rates: Estimates suggest that rates are nearing 7.3% as September concluded, up from under 7% earlier in the month. High mortgage rates increase monthly financing costs for buyers, forcing single-family homebuilders to slow new project starts and stick to “just in time” lumber purchasing.