The CME Group Agriculture Index (CMEAG) tracks the global agricultural complex via CME Group-listed volume-weighted rolling futures indices. The index covers five sectors: Grains, Oilseeds, Livestock, Dairy and Lumber. This multicommodity construction delivers a proportional reflection of the broader agricultural economy while insulating the aggregate performance from specific single-asset volatility.

Source: CME Group

The CME Group Agriculture Index declined approximately 6% in October 2026, weighed down by decreases of nearly 6% in Soybean, 3.5% in Soybean Oil and over 10.5% in Corn futures, the three most heavily weighted index constituents. Soybean Meal, the fourth most heavily-weighted constituent, fell more than 9% during the month. Cattle futures were neutral over the past month, while Lean Hog futures experienced sharp declines, continuing their downward momentum. Some Dairy constituents rose on dietary trends and seasonal demand. Rice futures led the gains amid tighter supply expectations following the conclusion of the annual harvest, while Oats sank to the bottom on wider industry momentum and an upward revision to ending stocks.

The loss this past month tempered the year’s overall gains, leaving the Index up more than 6% year to date at the end of October and largely erasing the gains from the late-summer rally led by major Grain and Oilseed futures.  

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Losses in Corn, Wheat and Soybean complex futures weighed heavily on the CME Group Agriculture Index this past month. In the United States, where Corn and Soybean complex futures are physically delivered, corn and soybeans are planted and harvested once per year. October is the month during which the majority of the nation’s harvest of these two most widely planted crops occurs.

Wheat, oats and rice, our breakfast-gruel staples, were among the most dynamic CME Group Agriculture Index movers this past month. Unlike corn and soybeans, the harvests of wheat, rice and oats are completed in late summer, making North American new crop supply well-known by October of each year.

In what now seems to be a near-yearly occurrence, Mississippi River water levels dipped problematically low this October, collapsing local cash basis rates for crops that are exported along the river, spiking downbound barge rates, and adding to bearish futures price pressure for major commodity benchmarks.

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The USDA’s October 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and concurrent NASS Crop Production report on October 9, 2026, exerted immediate downward pressure on Corn futures prices. In contrast to market expectations anticipating a reduction, the USDA unexpectedly raised its average 2026 U.S. corn yield estimate by nearly 3 bushels per acre, lifting projected total production and expanding 2026/27 domestic ending stocks by 18%. December 2026 Corn futures dropped approximately 20 cents per bushel on the day of release to reach a two-month contract low, closing at $4.805. From there, the new-crop Corn futures continued a downward ride, crossing $4.50 per bushel by month-end. Although, according to the USDA Crop Progress report, the quality of both corn and soybeans harvested this month is the lowest in three years, the decline in future prices indicates abundant and favorable supply.

October USDA reports had a more nuanced effect on Soybean complex futures. While the month’s USDA WASDE report did include an increase in the national soybean yield projection (from 52.8 to 53.1 bushels per acre) and a concurrent marginal increase in ending stocks, Soybean futures did not react in the same way as Corn futures on the day of the report. Rather than falling, Soybean futures prices rose 6 cents per bushel by market close. Since then, however, Soybean futures have tumbled significantly as the effects of strong supply are felt within the soybean sector. On the demand side, strong soybean crushing softened oil and meal prices. 

This past month’s USDA reports proved equally as devastating for Wheat futures pricing as for Corn. Countering trade expectations for a tighter balance sheet, in the October WASDE, the USDA raised its forecast for ending stocks, signaling looser domestic supply availability than the market had priced in. Compounding greater-than-expected supply, weak export demand weighed down by a strong dollar and global competition from Black Sea supply further depressed both Chicago SRW and KC HRW Wheat futures prices.

While the October WASDE and Crop Production reports roiled Wheat and Corn futures markets to the downside, Rough Rice futures swung up on bullish revisions to national supply. On the day, the USDA reduced its 2026/27 U.S. all-rice crop forecast to the lowest domestic output in over 30 years, marking a decrease of 24% year-over-year. This reduction stemmed from a 22-pound-per-acre cut in average yield due to late-season conditions, combined with a harvested area of just over two million acres, the lowest since the early 1970s. As a result, tighter domestic ending stocks and a reduction in exports are projected.

Experiencing the biggest losses among CME Group Agriculture Index constituents, rolling Oat futures levels fell nearly 18% over the month, closing more than 20% below their mid-month peak preceding the October WASDE report. As for other major Grains and Oilseed futures, this month’s WASDE report proved highly impactful for Oats, when an upward revision in projected new-crop ending stocks sunk prices on the day. Momentum spilled over from other grains and oilseed prices and weak export demand pressed prices down further as the month progressed. 

Cattle markets started October on solid footing, recovering late-summer and early-fall losses before eventually turning lower later in the month. Feeder Cattle futures hung onto a modestly positive performance over the month of 1.25% while Live Cattle futures slipped into negative territory, closing October at -0.79%.

Meanwhile, the downward momentum in Lean Hogs futures continued, pushing the December contract to fresh lows.

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Long-term fundamentals continue to support a tight cattle supply narrative, as the industry awaits clear signals of heifer retention and herd expansion. Notably, the USDA's October Cattle on Feed report put September placements 12% below 2025 levels, the lowest reported September figure since the USDA first published this series in 1996. Additionally, a bearish corn outlook in the October WASDE report offered relief on cost of grain for feeders, a bright spot in light of other challenges around the cost of diesel and fertilizer. However, early-month optimism gave way to weakening cash fundamentals. Declining boxed beef prices eroded packer margins and softened cash bids, pulling live cattle sharply lower and in turn dragging on feeder cattle. Though the brunt of the month-end decline was apparent in live cattle, feeders were not unscathed, losing significant gains as well.

Lean Hogs futures faced persistent headwinds through October, declining sharply and reaching contract lows for the December futures. While the September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a smaller year-over-year U.S. herd size, heavier carcass weights offset lower headcount. Alongside heavier weights, frozen pork supplies were reported up 9% year-over-year in the USDA's October Cold Storage report. Ahead of the holiday season, the cash market tends to face additional pressure with anticipated heightened demand for pork and strong supply of hogs. With strong production, elevated cold storage and persistently soft demand, the lean hogs market faces a myriad of challenges this season.

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Within the Dairy complex, October marked a pivotal shift as Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM) futures relinquished its role as the market’s primary headline driver. After dominating trading through late summer with an aggressive rally above $2.00 per pound, NFDM entered a quiet consolidation phase, slipping 0.26% month-over-month. Cash-Settled Butter, the other component of the Class IV calculation, dropped 2.60%, touching fresh multi-year lows under $1.32 per pound as heavy churning schedules and a steady surplus of cream kept domestic cold storage amply supplied. Weighed down by this persistent erosion in butterfat values and the lack of upward momentum from powder, Class IV Milk retreated 0.73% to $18.80 per hundredweight.

The spotlight has shifted decisively to Class III, which staged a counter-rally fueled by a surge in cheese demand in October. Cash-Settled Cheese futures jumped 7.36% on the month, propelling Class III Milk futures up 5.38% as buyers scrambled to secure inventory for the impending holiday retail and foodservice push. Processors saw robust orders for cheese, prompting plants to run near maximum capacity. To keep vats fully supplied, manufacturers aggressively bid on spot milk, driving local spot premiums up and effectively diverting milk supplies that had previously supported balancing facilities. This shift to an awakening cheese market and away from an oversupplied fat-and-powder complex redefined the prevailing narrative of 2026, which had been focused on NFDM price volatility.

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Lumber futures reacted to dwindling demand due to seasonal patterns and an increase in interest rates, sliding over 7.5% month-over-month as benchmark cash prices fell below the $500 per thousand board feet threshold. Proactive mill curtailments and trade duty frictions, which had previously maintained a price floor, were ultimately overpowered by a sharp drop in late-season demand. As northern framing windows began closing ahead of winter ground freezes, homebuilders shifted attention from new housing starts to enclosing and finishing active job sites. Exacerbating this seasonal wind-down, 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbed further into the mid-7% range, impacting single-family housing affordability and new residential starts. With little incentive to build speculative inventory in an elevated-rate environment, lumber yards and distributors kept order files lean and restricted procurement more to just-in-time deliveries.