The CME Group Agriculture Index tracks the global agricultural complex via CBOT- and CME-listed volume-weighted rolling futures prices. The index covers five sectors: grains, oilseeds, livestock, dairy and lumber. This multicommodity construction delivers a proportional reflection of the broader agricultural economy while insulating the aggregate performance from specific single-asset volatility.

Within this framework, corn and soybeans bridge feed and renewable energy markets, while livestock, dairy and staple grains shed light on global food production and dietary trends. Lumber provides a key barometer for U.S. housing activity, enabling the aggregate index to comprehensively monitor supply chains, industrial and consumer demand, and fluctuating input costs across the global economy.

The broader agricultural complex demonstrated resilient momentum early in the year, as the industry anticipated the upcoming growing season and the cattle cycle continued to experience herd contraction supporting prices. A distinct near-term pivot, however, has emerged as seasonal harvest windows and favorable growing conditions have provided fresh supply expectations into the market, even as input costs tied to fuel prices remain high. 

Reflecting this directional shift, the CME Group Agriculture Index marks an 6.68% gain year-to-date (YTD) as of mid-year 2026 despite a 5.15% contraction over the month of June. The index reached its high for the year in mid-May on the back of, among other factors, crop reports espousing tight supply for certain grains. 

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The majority of products captured by the CME Group Agriculture Index have experienced positive price growth in 2026, with notable performance by nonfat dry milk (NFDM), soybean oil and class IV milk; each of which experienced extraordinary supply or demand shocks over the course of the year. 

NFDM has seen increases of over 80% in continuous futures pricing. This is in response to a supply shock related to the demand for high-protein products diverting milk to alternative processing. In the world of soybean oil: National biofuel policy rules, and this year is no exception with a 37% YTD return mid-year. Class IV milk, which is differentiated from Class III only in its end-use, experienced price growth due to shifting demand. Find out more about these market-moving trends as well as the major factors influencing other agricultural markets below.

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Recent policy under the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has favored the blending of biomass-based diesel fuels, for which soybean oil is an input, ever strengthening the tailwind behind Soybean futures prices over Corn futures. On March 27, 2026, the EPA finalized its highly anticipated rule establishing the RFS Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027. This established the highest renewable fuel blending mandates in the 20-year history of the RFS program, with an aggressive focus on biomass-based diesel biofuels. 

The EPA estimates that meeting the new 2026 mandates will require a massive 60% increase in domestic biodiesel and renewable diesel production compared to 2025 levels. Adding even more fuel to the fire underneath soybean oil prices, the EPA announcement contained a domestic supply premium, turbo charging national soybean crushing. As a result, soybean oil has seen one of the strongest gains of the year among Agricultural products. 

Soybean meal, which tracks closely with the hog and poultry markets to which it is an input, has experienced flat to modest growth at a YTD return of 1.7% through June. Soybeans, which are rarely consumed whole but are rather widely crushed for oil and meal, have been supported by demand for soybean oil and posted a 4.2% return YTD over H1 2026.

The annual USDA Acreage report, released on the last business day in June, is widely understood to be among the most market-moving for Corn and Soybean futures. This year, the June 30 Acreage report provided a net tailwind to Corn as bullish lower-than-anticipated ending stocks more than offset bearish larger-than-expected plantings. The report had a tepid effect on Soybean futures, with major indicators meeting analyst expectations pre-release.

The 2026 performance of the dietary staple crops Wheat, Rice and Oats futures has exceeded what would be expected given normal seasonality. Rice, Chicago Wheat and KC Wheat futures have exhibited double-digit returns since January. Rice and oats, like corn and soybeans, are planted in the spring and harvested in the fall, and are thus expected to see prices increase as supplies tighten before their respective harvests. Winter wheat, which is planted in the fall and harvested in early summer, is expected to see its lowest prices in the summer as stocks replenish with the new harvest, bucking that trend this year with notable returns through H1. 

In terms of YTD returns, Rice futures lead the pack with over 25% as of mid-year, as producers face dramatic challenges this crop year. High fertilizer prices, resulting from the latest conflicts in the Middle East, have pushed some U.S. rice producers towards insolvency, despite the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payout for rice being the highest among the 18 eligible row crops under the USDA. As such, harvested acres are projected to fall well below planted acres, leaving anticipated production at multiyear lows if realized for the current crop year. Erratic spring weather and pestilence have only added insult to injury for Southeastern rice producers.

The May 2026 monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) report delivered a massive supply-side shock to the U.S. wheat complex. Driven by severe weather challenges, the USDA projected total U.S. winter wheat production down 25% over the prior year, positioning this year’s crop as the smallest U.S. winter wheat crop since 1965. 

HRW wheat, the most common variety of winter wheat grown in the United States and the underlying supply to KC HRW Wheat futures, bore the brunt of the report's bullish supply cuts. The USDA estimated this year’s HRW production at 515 million bushels, representing a staggering 36% drop from the previous year. Severe, prolonged drought conditions, blistering spring heat and intense winds heavily damaged the crop across Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Nebraska. This triggered poor germination, stunted growth and a deeply diminished harvested-to-planted ratio. KC HRW Wheat futures spiked following the report and have since sustained a somewhat elevated level, posting a YTD return of 14% mid-year.  

SRW wheat, underlying the Chicago Wheat futures contract, fared much better in the May 2026 WASDE, though national production is predicted to mark a notable year-on-year contraction of 15% due to reduced planting. Bullish prices for KC HRW Wheat futures tend to elevate SRW Wheat futures, as millers may turn to the lower protein SRW to substitute. As with other grains, high input costs plague producers. Across wheat classes, the USDA June WASDE forecasts the ending stocks to be 18% lower than last year. This tightening of the stocks-to-use ratio is the primary macro driver for the current bullish sentiment in both varieties of Wheat futures. 

The current year has proved unremarkable for U.S. and Canadian oats, the supply of which underlies Oat futures. Reports of favorable growing conditions and steady supplies have depressed prices this year. Low prices for corn leave no room for oats among livestock feeders who may in other economic conditions substitute one for the other. Dietary trends among U.S. consumers provide a countervailing tailwind in U.S. oats demand, as domestic consumption of oats for food is projected to increase in the current year. YTD returns currently sit at -1%. 

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If the story of the past years in cattle has been high prices, the story of 2026 for cattle has been even higher prices. After breaking records in 2024 and 2025, Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle futures prices have crawled higher yet in 2026. Still locked into the contraction phase of the current prolonged cattle cycle, the U.S. cattle herd is currently at a 75-year low. While herd sizes may be down, improved genetics of the past decades have allowed producers to sustain production levels with fewer head of cattle, softening, though not entirely mitigating, the need for imported beef in the current high-demand environment. Over the first half of 2026, Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures have posted returns of 5.5% and 5.3%, respectively, as of mid-year.

In 2026, the United States hog market exhibits balanced structural stability, with marginal production expansion driven by technical efficiency rather than herd growth. While the national breeding inventory has contracted slightly, total domestic pork production continues to expand, propelled by record-high litter averages. Lean Hog futures have adjusted downward, yet producer profit margins remain resilient due to stabilized feed costs and supportive domestic retail demand as elevated beef valuations encourage consumer protein substitution. This baseline stability is reinforced by steady growth in U.S. export volumes, as sustained demand from Mexico and other Western Hemisphere channels absorbs surplus production and captures global market share vacated by the European Union.

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The explosion in Nonfat Dry Milk (NFDM) futures prices in recent months is indicative of a classic example of a supply-side squeeze. Although overall milk production is increasing, with total U.S. milk production up nearly 3%, relatively lower quantities of milk are being diverted to make powder. Class IV milk, the input to NFDM in addition to butter, experienced price increases in tandem.

In the world of Cheese futures and the underlying national supply, oversupply is a current headwind. The U.S. entered 2026 with a substantially larger dairy herd than the previous year, setting the stage for higher production of class III milk, the input to cheese production. Furthermore, rapid advancements in herd genetics and animal nutrition have resulted in record-high milk component percentages, with a higher concentration of butterfat and protein per pound of fluid milk. This year’s new and improved milk has created an abundance of component parts, paving the way for an oversupply of block and barrel cheddar that has suppressed prices.

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In Lumber futures, 2026 has been marked by stark macroeconomic friction, as last year’s demand deflated under the weight of sticky mortgage rates topping 6% that depressed single-family home starts. Absolute price collapses, however, were prevented by aggressive, historic supply-side rationing, with over 1.3 billion board feet of capacity permanently removed through North American sawmill closures. Price action found a firm floor in early 2026, staging a modest recovery despite persistent tariff uncertainty. Returns on Lumber futures normalized to the start-of-the-year averages by June.