The CME Group Agriculture Index tracks the global agricultural complex via CBOT- and CME-listed volume-weighted rolling futures prices. The index covers five sectors: grains, oilseeds, livestock, dairy and lumber. This multicommodity construction delivers a proportional reflection of the broader agricultural economy while insulating the aggregate performance from specific single-asset volatility.

The CME Group Agriculture Index provided a monthly return of 2.36% over July 2026, building on early year momentum to post a return of 9.21% year to date.

Among component markets, monthly returns were led by Grains and Oilseed futures, with KC HRW Wheat (+13.15%) and Chicago Wheat (+8.49%) recording the highest monthly returns due to tight ending stocks and severe drought damage during the growing season. Corn (+5.76%) and Soybeans (+5.05%) also posted gains, driven by strong ethanol grind rates, elevated domestic biofuel crush capacity and accelerating export demand, despite favorable mid-summer weather improving row crop yield prospects. Rough Rice gained 5.04% following downward USDA revisions to Southeastern acreage, while Oat futures remained flat (-0.02%). In the livestock sector, Cattle futures retreated from recent highs, with Feeder Cattle (-5.83%) and Live Cattle (-4.60%) declining despite ongoing multiyear herd contraction, while Lean Hogs (+0.18%) stabilized amidst lower national pork production forecasts.

The dairy market experienced significant divergence, marked by sharp sell-offs in Class IV Milk (-9.26%) and Cash-settled Butter (-13.24%) as expanding milk supply outweighed demand, while Class III Milk (+4.85%) rose on steady natural cheese inventories and domestic retail interest. North American Lumber futures delivered a -1.21% monthly return, trading in a stable band around the low-to-mid $600s per thousand board feet; high mortgage rates continued to suppress single-family homebuilding, but mill curtailments and a 76.3% June surge in multi-family starts provided a price floor. Across all sectors, July commodity movements were defined by the interplay between advancing seasonal harvests, tight underlying inventories and sustained industrial processing demand.

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KC HRW and Chicago Wheat led CME Group Agriculture Index components in terms of continuous futures monthly returns driven by mounting supply concerns. Meanwhile, market participants closely monitored critical mid-summer weather developments for other row crops, such as corn and soybeans, which ultimately boosted supply expectations through July. The demand side remained supported by heavy domestic soybean crush capacity and biofuel feedstock usage.

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Demand across both corn and soybeans remained robust over the course of July, supporting respective continuous futures components of the CME Group Agriculture Index. In the corn market, ethanol grind rates are operating at elevated levels, generating a pull on commercial corn inventories alongside steady livestock feed consumption. Ethanol production increased at the end of July to the second highest level recorded. Simultaneously, the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume mandates and healthy crush margins continued to incentivize soybean processors to crush at near-maximum capacity to meet renewable diesel demand. In addition, the export demand for soybeans has quickened, with exports projected to increase nearly 10% year over year. 

On the supply side, physical crop conditions took center stage throughout July. Timely mid-summer rainfall and moderate temperatures across primary growing regions in the U.S. Corn Belt provided near-ideal conditions during the critical corn silking and pollination phases. This weather window raised prospective corn yields, while old-crop commercial stocks continued to flow out of farm storage to make room for the upcoming harvest. For soybeans, supply fundamentals remained tightly balanced as the crop entered its critical pod-filling stage in late July. Recent USDA reports indicate projected higher overall soybean production, with the markets anticipating the first survey-based yield forecasts to be released in the August 12, 2026, WASDE report.

The annual USDA Acreage report, released on the last business day in June, is widely understood to be among the most market-moving for Corn and Soybean futures. This year, the June 30 Acreage report provided a net tailwind to Corn as bullish lower-than-anticipated ending stocks more than offset bearish larger-than-expected plantings. The report had a tepid effect on Soybean futures, with major indicators meeting analyst expectations pre-release.

Staple grain fundamentals in July reflected expanding seasonal supply as winter harvests advanced. Tight overall ending stocks and localized supply constraints maintained an underlying floor.

Winter wheat, unlike spring-planted row crops, such as corn, soybeans, oats and rice, is planted in the autumn and harvested in summer. The domestic supply of winter wheat expanded rapidly last month as harvest activity concluded through the Southern and Central Plains. The arrival of new-crop grain replenished spot commercial supply, partially alleviating the deficits seen earlier in the season across Hard Red Winter (HRW) growing areas. However, drought earlier in the crop year severely damaged overall harvested acreage. According to USDA Crop Progress, only 26% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated in good or excellent condition at the conclusion of harvest, making it the lowest such rating in over 30 years. National production too was pushed to historic lows. 

Consequently, ending stocks-to-use ratios across the wheat complex remain significantly tighter than average. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat supply expanded in line with typical seasonal trends, prompting domestic flour millers to adjust grist blends and substitute available SRW for higher-cost HRW supplies.

Continuous rolling Oat futures provided flat returns over the month of July, rising and falling over the course of the month on harvest-related news. Deliverable supply of Oat futures is of primarily Canadian origin, placing importance on Canadian national statistics. Mid-summer heat across the Canadian prairies provided mid-month support to Oat futures this July. Futures moderated in late July on harvest news and strong U.S. feed grain supplies. 

Rice provided monthly returns of over 5% in July on the back of a major acreage reduction in Southeastern U.S. rice-growing regions. In the July WASDE, the USDA issued a significant downward revision to the U.S. rice supply, projecting near-record low domestic harvest. Acreage fell across all six major long-grain rice producing states, including Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana. Amidst tight supply, weak demand keeps prices tepid year over year.

In July 2026, the longstanding divergent paths between cattle and hog markets softened, if only ever so slightly. In recent years, the cattle sector has been characterized by limited supply, stagnant herd expansion and near-record prices. Conversely, the hog sector has experienced price weakness and reduced export shipments, despite long-term forecasts indicating a smaller pig crop. In the past month, however, cattle prices fell a bit from record highs and hogs held steady.

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The Cattle Cycle, the eight- to 12-year expansion and contraction of the U.S. cattle herd, has continued its slow slog through its current contraction phase in the summer of 2026. Supply remains at or near 75-year lows, and USDA data released during the month showed that despite record prices, herd rebuilding, initiated by what is known as “heifer retention,” has not yet begun in earnest. According to the late July 2026 USDA Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Reports, as of July 1, 2026, U.S. cattle and calves totaled slightly above the year prior. Beef cows, however, dropped another 1% to 28.5 million head, and the 2026 expected calf crop was down 2%.

The monthly USDA Cattle on Feed release, which is reported at a lag, estimated total cattle on feed (in feedlots with 1,000+ head capacity) at 11.37 million head as of July 1, up 2% since last year. June feedlot placements (i.e., the number of cattle transitioning from the cow-calf stage of life to the feedlot), dropped 3% year over year to 1.40 million head. Fed cattle marketings totaled 1.66 million head, also down 3% year over year, marking the lowest June marketing volume since the data series began publishing in 1996. Together these factors support higher Feeder and Live Cattle prices as components to the CME Group Agriculture Index, over the prior year. 

The effects of tight supplies can be felt downstream by the American consumer. The USDA ERS July Food Price Outlook highlighted that retail beef and veal prices jumped 1.4% from May to June and were 11.8% higher year over year. Farm-level cattle prices are projected to rise 11.6% overall in 2026, backed by resilient domestic consumer demand.

While U.S. demand for beef has persisted despite high prices, pork too continues to perplex economists as soft demand persists despite low prices amidst a national protein craze. Concomitant with soft seasonal demand and lower pork cutout prices, national pork production is estimated to be lower in the coming years according to the USDA. The July WASDE lowered 2026 U.S. pork production by 40 million pounds, incorporating the late June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which confirmed smaller pig crops in H1 2026 and expectations for lower year over year farrowings through the second half of 2026. Reduced slaughter in H2 2026 is expected to be partially offset by heavier dressed weights (and thus more meat yielded per animal), though overall production is projected downward into 2027.

July 2026 brought a notably bearish shift across U.S. Class IV Milk, Butter and Nonfat Dry Milk futures shaped by expanding milk supply projections, downward revisions in price forecasts and falling cash prices. While mid- to late July heat waves offered temporary regional support to spot milk, overall supply growth outweighed domestic and international demand.

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The July 24, 2026, USDA Cold Storage Report provided a mixed fundamental picture for product inventories, as total butter in storage on June 30 was down 7% compared to June 2025, and down 1% month over month. Despite falling cash prices in July, underlying storage supplies remained lean compared to historical norms. Total natural cheese stocks totaled 1.43 billion pounds, up 1% from May but down 1% from June 2025. Cheese inventories were steady along with domestic retail demand, providing some support to both Cheese and Class III Milk prices, amidst light foodservice demand.

In North American lumber, July 2026 was defined by supply-side support and uneven demand. While broader macroeconomic pressures and high mortgage rates kept single-family homebuilding constrained, mill curtailments, trade duty friction and a sharp rebound in multi-family housing starts provided supportive tailwinds to price, thwarting deeper discounts over the year. 

According to the U.S. Census Bureau New Residential Construction report released July 17, 2026, single-family starts – the key driver of dimension lumber consumption – edged down slightly to 895,000 seasonally adjusted units. Multi-family starts comprising five or more units, however, spiked 76.3% to 513,000 units seasonally adjusted in June, rebounding from a sharp drop in May and driving overall growth.

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As a result, Lumber futures traded within a stable band around the low- to mid-$600s per thousand board feet, providing flat-to-negative monthly returns.