The trends of tight supply, slack imports, steady demand and rising prices are present again this month for the U.S. sheet market. HR coil prices were assessed at $1,114/s.ton as of 10 June while CR coil is now at $1,317/s.ton and HDG is at $1,304/s.ton. CR coil and HDG prices outpaced the rise in HR coil prices over the past month as they gained 6.7% and 5.8% respectively. This has been linked to strong data center construction spending and surprisingly strong demand for automotive material. With service center inventories continuing to decline and lead times extending, it also raises the possibility of double ordering, which would tighten conditions further while also raising the risk of a sharper dropoff in prices in H2 as supply catches up to demand.

May import volumes edged higher, suggesting the market may have found a floor, with total arrivals reaching 360 kt. This is the highest monthly figure since October and a 14% gain month on month. However, that tally still falls well short of the 600 – 700 kt monthly averages that were the norm in recent history. Notably over a third of these imports, or 125 kt, came from South Korea. This is also a continued trend throughout all finished steel imports as South Korea has the capacity to export, and the landed cost equation might be aided by the near all-time high USD-KRW exchange rate.

On the domestic side, supply constraints are reinforcing the upward price trajectory. Mill delivery delays persist, spot availability remains scarce and contracted volumes are being allocated at minimum levels. In addition, elevated fuel costs continue to exert cost-push pressure across the supply chain.

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HR Coil futures in the U.S. increased again through to the end of 2026. This mirrors the strength in the physical market and is a clear sign for further near-term price strength.

Open interest for U.S. HR Coil futures from CME Group remains at one of the highest points post pandemic as it sits at 41,225 lots as of the morning of June 9. Managed money positions have flattened out somewhat but remain firmly net long according to the most recent commitment of traders report.

The shape of the curve has not changed much but the peak and plateau have been pushed higher and back another month. As such August and September are trading roughly $60 – $70/s.ton higher than last month as they approach $1,200. The one-month basis spread has also increased substantially versus previous iterations of the curve. July is trading at $1,170/s.ton which equates to a $45 /s.ton spread. This is more than double the one-month spread reported in last month’s update.

Most of this can be tied directly to the conflict in the Middle East which is still ongoing. If we look back to February before the conflict started, futures pricing for 2026 was at an average of $930/s.ton and a high-low spread of just $83/s.ton. Now, looking at just the back half of the year, the average contract price is $1,156/s.ton and the peak is over $250/s.ton higher than the low point in January. This is a good example of the extra volatility the conflict has introduced to domestic pricing.

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