Risk management demand surges as rate uncertainty rises
With heightened geopolitical risks on top of an already uncertain economic outlook, there was a dramatic repricing of rate markets in March, especially in the short end of the curve.
Yields on the 2-Year saw a +50bps range on the month, while CVOL's skew metric for 2-Year Treasuries showed the highest level in more than a decade. This eclipsed the peak set in 2020 and pushed the 2-Year to a new average daily open interest (ADOI) monthly high of over 6M contracts.
STIR trading was not immune to these trends, as odds of "no hike by December" soared on FedWatch, and are now the base case for traders in 2026. This helped push STIR ADV over 10M for the first time, up 54% YoY and led by flagship SR3 contracts hitting a record of 6.6M.
These surging volumes in the face of rapidly changing economic conditions underscore the ability of our entire complex to meet the market's risk management needs no matter the environment.
OTC cleared ADNV ~$140B in Q1
OTC Interest Rate swap clearing average daily notional is up 76% YoY, driven by both increased volatility and demand for the capital efficiencies available through our Portfolio Margining service for CME-cleared swaps and futures.
LatAm swaps (MXN, BRL, CLP, COP) set a new quarterly high of $86B/day (USDE), while USD swap notional grew to $58B/day.
A new bucket list for credit traders
With the launch of four additional Credit futures contracts last month, participants now have additional choices for maturity-bucketed IG credit and a new way to manage risk in emerging markets.
These new members of the suite come in as the Credit futures ecosystem reaches new levels of activity, thanks in part to rising concerns over volatility in corporate credit markets. Q1's ADV is up roughly 83% vs. a year ago, while average daily open interest (ADOI) has tripled YoY.
With more contracts and renewed interest in managing risk in this space, look for continued adoption of Credit futures in the months ahead.
More in Interest Rates
Options ADV approaches 5M in March
Increased demand for risk management also put the focus on the short end of the Treasury curve in the options market. 2-Year and 5-Year options (including Weeklies and classic Treasuries) saw 70% growth in ADV month-over-month.
Contracts across daily expirations combined with non-linear exposure to provide precise positioning for participants. And with options ranging across the curve, there is a broad range of ways for you to dial in your risk to execute your strategy.
See our full options suite
Eris SOFR crosses 700K in OI
It was the most active month yet for Eris SOFR as ADV hit a new monthly record (up 155% YoY) while OI surpassed 700K for the first time, peaking at 707K on March 12.
This comes as waning rate-cut speculation has put a premium on long-term hedging. For those with mortgage pipeline risk in particular, Eris SOFR offers a vital solution in today's rate environment.
3 key tools for monitoring rates
With expectations for rates shifting on a regular basis, use these resources to stay apprised of market trends and outlooks.
FedWatch: The gold-standard for staying up-to-date on what the market is pricing in for the FOMC, with probabilities for all of this year's meetings.
STIR Analytics: Discover data for a variety of STIR spreads, including T-Bills vs. SOFR, Fed Funds vs. SOFR and more.
Treasury Analytics: Find important info on Treasury pricing, including CurveWatch, which shows Treasury yield history and spreads.
Data as of April 1, 2026, unless otherwise specified.
View an archive of the Rates Recap online at cmegroup.com/ratesrecap.
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