Stock index futures are useful trading tools because they provide a proxy for taking on a position in the equity markets as represented by a stock index. Placing an inter-market spread between two stock index futures is an effective and facile way of expressing an opinion regarding the prospective relative performance of the two market segments that the indexes represent.
The purpose of this piece is to review the process and practice of inter-market stock index spreading.
Futures contracts are available based upon a number of macro U.S. indexes including the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the S&P MidCap 400.
|Popular Stock Index Futures
(As of 4/30/2014)
|E-mini S&P 500||$50x||1,883.95||$94,198|
|E-mini ($5) DJIA||$5x||16,580.80||$82,904|
|E-mini S&P Midcap 400||$100x||1,355.96||$135,596|
The E-mini Standard & Poor’s 500 futures contract is the most actively traded of all stock index futures worldwide. It is cash-settled to a value of $50 x Index. If the S&P 500 equals 1,883.95, the value of a single futures contract equals $94,198 (= $50 x 1,883.95). Similarly, if the Nasdaq-100 equals 3,582.02, the value of a single futures contract equals $71,640 (= $20 x 3,582.02).
Each of the four indexes mentioned above may be considered “macro” U.S. stock indexes as they all represent major segments of the U.S. equity market. But because they are constructed a bit differently, they perform differently and correlate less than perfectly.
The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index of the top 500 stocks in the U.S. market. The Nasdaq-100 represents the top 100 non-financial stocks listed on the Nasdaq system and is heavily dominated by high-tech stocks. The DJIA is a price-weighted index of 30 established “blue-chip” industrial stocks. Finally, the S&P MidCap 400 represents the next 400 most significant stocks after the 500 or “mid-cap” stocks.
|Correlations between Spot Index Values
(Sampled Weekly from Jan-07 thru April 14)
|S&P 500||NASDAQ-100||DJIA||Midcap 400|
|S&P Midcap 400||0.961||0.914||0.920||-|
These indexes tend to be highly correlated. E.g., there is a 0.924 correlation between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the two indexes will generate similar performance. E.g., during the 3 month period concluding April 30, 2014, the S&P 500 generated a total return (including price performance and dividend accrual) of +1.58% while the Nasdaq-100 was at -2.98%.
(As of 4/30/2014)
|Futures||Index||3-Month Return||1-Year Return||5-Year Return|
|S&P Midcap 400||1,355.96||-1.21%||18.56%||141.64%|
In order to place an inter-market spread, it is necessary to derive the so-called “spread ratio.” The spread ratio is an indication of the ratio or number of stock index futures that must be held in the two markets to equalize the monetary value of the positions held on both legs of the spread.
The following formula may be used for this purpose where Value1 and Value2 represent the monetary value (in a common currency as necessary) of the two stock index futures contracts that are the subject of the spread.
Spread Ratio = Value1 ÷ Value2
For purposes of establishing the value of the futures contract, we use the spot index value and not the quoted futures price as a rule. This practice serves to eliminate carry considerations from the calculation.
E.g., E-mini S&P 500 futures are valued at $94,198 while E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are at $71,640. Thus, one may balance 10 E-mini S&P 500 futures with 13 Nikkei 225 futures.1
Spread Ratio = ValueS&P 500 ÷ ValueNASDAQ ⇒ $94,198 ÷ $71,640 = 1.315 or ratio of 10:13 S&P vs. NASDAQ contracts
Spread ratios provide an indication of the appropriate way to construct an inter-market spread. Because they are dynamic, one must be aware of the current spread ratio when placing a trade. But spread ratios are also useful as a general indication of spread performance.
We calculated spread ratios as the ratio of E-mini S&P 500 futures relative to the other futures contract. Thus, when these ratios increase, it represents a sign of strength in the S&P 500 relative to the other index. When the ratios decline, it represents relative weakness in the S&P 500.
The most dramatic movement observed is the general decline in the S&P 500/Nasdaq-100 spread. This might generally be explained by the poor performance of the financial sector of the market since the height of the so-called subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Note that the Nasdaq-100 is constructed to exclude all financials.
Spreads between different stock indexes offer a potentially profitable means by which to take advantage of market trends in light of the variations in the composition of the indexes.
The information herein has been compiled by CME Group for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or the solicitation of purchases or sale of any futures, options or swaps. All examples discussed are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the individual authors and may not reflect the opinion of CME Group or its affiliates. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official CME, CBOT and NYMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.
Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information herein, CME Group and its affiliates assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions. All data is sourced by CME Group unless otherwise stated.
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Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Swaps trading should only be undertaken by investors who are Eligible Contract Participants (ECPs) within the meaning of Section 1a(18) of the Commodity Exchange Act. Futures and swaps each are leveraged investments and, because only a percentage of a contract's value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for either a futures or swaps position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles and only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because traders cannot expect to profit on every trade.
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