Given the weather forecast into early August, the expectation for an extended trade war with China, and the current condition of the US crop, it appears likely that the USDA supply/demand update on August 10th will carry a bearish tilt. News of $12 billion in aid for US farmers due to US/China trade issues and escalating tariff s leaves the grain trade anticipating a long and drawn out trade dispute, and this opens the door for another adjustment lower in US soybean exports. Th ere is a good chance that the USDA will lower its US export forecast by another 2% to 2.0 billion bushels for 2018/19.
All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
