Soybean futures are listed for expiration in January, March, May, July, August, September and November. The crucial blooming and setting of pods occur primarily in July and conclude nationally by the end of August. Most soybeans are harvested in October; November Soybean futures are the respective year’s new crop instrument. Relative Soybean futures prices tend to peak in the summer, as the old crop ages and supply tightens.

As old crop stocks decline throughout the summer, the health of the new crop, which is in the process of growing, becomes of increasing importance. Weather conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, can greatly impact crop development and yields. Unexpected circumstances including drought, flooding or extreme heat between planting and harvest can significantly affect the supply dynamics of soybeans, leading to increased volatility in futures prices.

New crop instruments experience distinct market dynamics from old crop instruments. Extreme summer weather, for example, may impact new crop instruments more dramatically than it does the old crop since it may affect near-term yield. If that weather were to complicate immediate river transportation, however, old crop instruments may react since movement of their underlying physical commodities could be impeded. 

Corn and soybean volatility peaks in between the second and third quarters of the year, or late June and early July. Currently, the average weekly CVOL, an implied volatility metric derived from options pricing, for Corn (CVL) and Soybeans (SVL) is hovering around last year’s weekly average. Both products saw notable increases in volatility going into June, peaking mid-year. 

The late-June peak in volatility coincides with the release of the USDA Acreage report, which is arguably the most impactful USDA reports released throughout the year, reporting the definitive estimation of planted acreage by the nation’s farmers. While Prospective Plantings, which is released on the last weekday of March, reports intended acreage for principal crops for the upcoming crop year; Acreage reports planted crops, serving as an indicator of how well the reality of the crop year met expectations at its outset. As is the case for many reports, analyst polling affects price movement post release, whereby a release reporting less than expected acreage would have a bullish effect on markets, and a release reporting more than expected acreage, bearish.

Intertwined with planting decisions, weather and resulting crop conditions are, naturally, a driving force in summer volatility. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is again predicting above-average temperatures in much of the United States.

Heat and accompanying drought sunk the Mississippi River to record lows in recent autumns, complicating the transportation of grain on the nation’s most important inland waterway. This year, all eyes are on the river, with the headache of a dry riverbed still a recent memory.

While tremendously fundamental to field crop markets, seasonality and growing season risks are but one piece of the supply and demand story. 

Over the past five growing seasons, corn exports have accounted for between 12% and 19% of total annual disappearance. Export demand is colored by trade relationships, with tariffs of particular importance in 2025. As the preponderance of U.S. corn is produced domestically, biofuel policy is also paramount for corn demand. In the marketing year 2024/2025, approximately 36% of domestic disappearance of corn was attributable to ethanol production, a share influenced by road fuel blending mandates, global aviation policy, and distiller capacity. 

For more analysis on Grains and Oilseed fundamentals, see Product Analysis and Commentary.

The suite of our Agricultural futures and options holds the tools with which to express a nuanced view, or to precision-hedge risk throughout seasons of volatility. Deep and liquid front-month futures such as July Corn and Soybeans allow for directional exposure responding to immediate price movement, and our new financially settled Micro Corn and Soybean futures allow participants to access the same benchmark prices, but at 1/10 the size.  New crop products, such as Short-Dated New Crop options, New Crop Weekly options and conventional New Crop options settling to November Soybeans and December Corn futures, allow market participants exposure to the new crop year as its growing season develops. Monday through Friday options on front-month Corn and Soybean futures allow participants to effectively manage overnight liquidity. Whatever your risk profile or market view, find out more at www.cmegroup.com/agriculture.