Todd Colvin analyzes the continued surge in the 10-Year Treasury yield as it hits a new high of 5.29%, bringing its total September move to 50 basis points—the largest monthly jump since March 2022. Despite the sharp rise in rates, Colvin notes that the CVOL index remains roughly unchanged, indicating muted volatility across the complex. Looking ahead, he previews key upcoming economic data, including Wednesday's ADP employment change, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge, and second-quarter GDP revisions.
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