10-Year Treasury yields finished the session virtually unchanged, holding near the 4.44% mark. Despite the daily stability, yields dropped significantly on a weekly basis, falling 11 bps from the previous week's close. This weekly decline closely tracked a sharp drop in WTI Crude Oil futures driven by shifting geopolitical headlines and peace talk in the Middle East. However, looking at the longer-term trend since February, fixed income yields remain structurally elevated by 50 bps since the start of the regional crisis. Meanwhile, the CVOL index indicated that market volatility remained steady over the last three sessions, weathering stronger U.S. Treasury auctions and indicating that bond traders are searching for further confirmation before fully adjusting positions. Looking ahead, market attention will center on a critical slate of employment data next week, including JOLTS, ADP, and nonfarm payrolls, alongside the final round of Fed speakers before the pre-FOMC blackout window.
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