Over Memorial Day weekend, early optimism regarding the Middle East briefly pushed crude oil below $90 and S&P 500 futures near 7,570 before geopolitical realities reversed those moves. The market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between AI-driven productivity gains and oil-induced inflation risks.
Jim Iuorio of JI Financial examines how equity resilience faces a major test with Friday's PCE report. Expectations call for inflation to rise to 3.8% (up from 3.5%). If the print flirts with the 4% threshold, it could complicate the outlook for new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. While AI continues to provide a massive tailwind, the market's next leg higher possibly hinges on contained inflation and key S&P and WTI levels.