June Gold futures experienced an intraday reversal, pairing early gains to finish lower after rallying to 4,572.40 and subsequently dropping to 4,488.30. This price action comes amid a significant short-term regime shift, as the 30-day correlation between gold and equity futures dropped sharply to -55, even as the 180-day correlation remains positive at +28. This divergence suggests gold is reasserting its safe-haven status against equities under pressure from geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, hawkish shifts in monetary policy expectations are impacting the market, with the CME FedWatch Tool pointing to a 42% probability of a December rate hike. This hawkish repricing pushed the 10-Year Treasury yield above 4.57% and the 30-year yield past 5.1%, increasing the opportunity cost for non-yielding assets like gold and weighing on its role as an inflation hedge.
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