Todd Colvin analyzes the recent drop in 10-Year Note yields, which hit 4.22%—their lowest level since mid-March—following a ceasefire announcement, before rebounding to close near 4.28%. Despite the intraday rebound, yields marked their second consecutive close below 4.30%, signaling underlying strength for Treasury futures. Colvin also reviews the newly released FOMC minutes, noting a more hawkish tone as the Fed balances concerns over jobs, growth, and inflation, leaving the door open for both rate cuts and hikes. Additionally, the CVOL index dropped to near month-to-date lows following the geopolitical developments. Looking ahead, traders will monitor Thursday's initial jobless claims, the PCE inflation gauge, and a $22 billion 30-Year Treasury auction for further market direction.
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