June British Pound futures fell for a fourth straight session, bringing the total decline over that period to 1.37%. Meanwhile, UK retail sales data revealed that consumers are remaining somewhat resilient, with February sales dropping just 0.4%, beating expectations of a 0.6% decline. January sales were also revised higher to a 2% gain. However, this data was collected prior to recent energy cost increases related to Middle East geopolitical tensions. Elevated oil prices could push the Bank of England away from easing and toward further tightening, which might technically support the currency. Yet, if elevated energy costs choke UK economic growth, stagflation risks could become the dominant narrative. The OECD has already reduced its 2026 UK GDP growth forecast to 0.7%.