Todd Colvin analyzes the reversal in 10-Year Treasury Note yields following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. Yields initially dipped to 4.17% before Middle Eastern headlines and rising energy costs pushed them to a 4.25% close. Colvin notes that the "hawkish pause" reflects the Fed's focus on inflation, particularly as oil prices impact the Consumer Price Index. Market expectations for 2026 have shifted from three anticipated rate cuts to zero fully priced in. The session also saw an increase in volatility via the CVOL Index. Looking ahead, the market awaits jobless claims, the Philly Fed Index, and a 10-Year TIPS auction.
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