U.S. Treasury yields ended 2025 nudging higher, closing at 4.14% after trading within a tight 10 basis point range over the last month. For the full year, yields declined approximately 40 basis points from starting levels in the mid-4.50% range as the Federal Reserve implemented interest rate cuts. While the CME CVOL index showed volatility at multi-year lows to close the year, market participants are looking ahead to 2026 for potential breakouts driven by unemployment and inflation data. Trading resumes Friday with the release of the S&P manufacturing PMI, followed by employment data and Fed speakers the following week.
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