January Soybean futures closed sharply lower, realizing their biggest one-day loss since April 4th, yet they held the trend channel and the 10-day moving average. The aggressive price move pulled the Relative Strength Index (RSI) down from an extreme overbought level of 83% to a more neutral 62%. The fundamental reason for the drop includes disappointment that no new soybean sales to China have been announced, with only a total of eight cargoes reported, which is far from the agreed-upon 12 million metric tons needed by year-end. Furthermore, Brazil’s planting is progressing near average, suggesting the export window for the US will not be significantly extended, adding another negative factor for the US export program and contributing to the high volatility in the Soybean futures market this week.
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