Geopolitical risks drive oil as stocks bounce. Mon, 20 Jul 2026 10:37:20 -0500
Bob Iaccino breaks down the morning's market action, noting that stocks are bouncing despite an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields. He covers the latest movements in silver, copper, and major currencies against a stronger U.S. dollar. Highlighting renewed geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Iran strikes and shipping concerns, Iaccino explains the recent spike and partial reversal in crude oil prices. He also analyzes the diverging paths of gold and Bitcoin, outlining the different forces driving these markets. Finally, Iaccino previews upcoming earnings reports from major companies and regional banks, alongside key global economic data releases.

S&P 500 futures fell toward monthly lows on expiration Friday. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 15:48:15 -0500
In today's equity index futures markets, the S&P 500 futures traded lower for a second consecutive session, testing the 7,500 handle. On this expiration Friday, high volatility was driven by position rolling across major indices. While early U.S. economic data came in mixed and largely met expectations, broader macro factors weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a rally in WTI Crude Oil futures to one-month highs added to the market's downside pressure. The tech sector experienced pronounced relative weakness, with the Nasdaq-100 facing notable selling. As a result, major benchmarks gave up their early July momentum, leaving the S&P 500 futures poised to close at a new low for the month.

Live Cattle futures fell to mark fourth weekly loss. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 15:22:45 -0500
August Live Cattle futures suffered their 15th consecutive lower close, dropping $2.65 on the session and finishing the week down $10.77. This marks the fourth straight week of declines and the longest losing streak since October. August Feeder Cattle futures also slipped, closing at 345.95, down $8.65 for the week. In contrast, October Lean Hog futures advanced $1.02 to 87.95, securing a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Wholesale box beef reports showed steady to higher prices, with choice cuts rising 31 cents and select cuts gaining 66 cents. Weekly cattle slaughter fell to 433,000 head, down roughly 30,000 head from the same period last year, while live cattle and feeder cattle CVOL both trended lower.

Wheat futures rallied 45.5 cents amid new soybean flash sales. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 15:22:30 -0500
In today's agricultural markets, grain futures closed the week in the green, highlighted by a massive 45.5-cent weekly rally in December Chicago Wheat futures. December Corn futures and November Soybean futures also finished higher, adding 6.5 cents and 12 cents for the week, respectively. The USDA reported three significant soybean flash sales for the 2026-2027 marketing year, including 340,000 metric tons to China and 256,634 metric tons to Mexico. Meanwhile, market participants closely monitored the Midwest weather forecast. While the 6-to-10-day outlook shows cooler temperatures, the 8-to-14-day models forecast a return to higher heat, which could have substantial implications on yield potential for both corn and soybeans.

2-Year Note futures slipped within their monthly range. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 14:55:35 -0500
In today's interest rate markets, 2-Year Note futures moved lower, drifting back toward the 103 handle and settling into the middle of their monthly range. Early U.S. economic data, including housing starts and consumer sentiment, crossed mostly in line with expectations but initially created mild buying pressure. However, sentiment shifted over the course of the session due to a rally in WTI Crude Oil futures, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher energy costs impacted forward-looking inflation expectations, prompting a sell-off on the front end of the Treasury curve while the back end remained bid. As a result, the yield curve flattened, with the Two-Year yield climbing 1.5 bps to 417 bps by the afternoon.

WTI Crude Oil futures climbed to a five-week high. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 14:53:23 -0500
In today's energy markets, WTI Crude Oil futures experienced continued upward momentum, reaching their highest levels since the second week of June. Prices rallied near 82.15 as the August contract prepared to roll into September. A primary factor driving this price action is ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. With no signs of tensions softening, the market is experiencing a historical weekend effect, where uncertainty heading into the weekend generates additional buying pressure. After rebounding from late June lows, WTI Crude Oil futures have trended consistently higher throughout July, establishing strong five-week highs.

Euro futures slipped as lower inflation supports policy pause. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 14:36:49 -0500
September Euro futures experienced minor daily losses but managed a weekly gain of 0.14%, continuing to carve out a bottom over the past four weeks. The currency found support after Eurostat reported that June Eurozone inflation cooled significantly to 2.8%, down from 3.2% in May and coming in below market expectations. This softer macroeconomic reading gives the European Central Bank enhanced flexibility to hold interest rates steady at 2.25% during its upcoming meeting. However, war-driven energy risks remain a primary concern for policy makers, contrasting with weaker U.S. inflation data that has cooled the Federal Reserve's tightening narrative.

Gold futures fell as rate pause offset safe haven demand. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 14:08:47 -0500
August Gold futures staged a modest rebound during Friday's session but ultimately concluded with a weekly decline of 2.37%, marking the eighth week of lower prices in the past 10 weeks. Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to create a complex environment for the precious metal, balancing the headwind of energy-driven inflation and elevated interest rates against persistent safe-haven demand. With CME FedWatch data indicating a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, recent softer CPI and PPI readings have diminished the likelihood of further rate hikes without guaranteeing imminent cuts. Consequently, geopolitical developments remain a primary catalyst for Gold futures in the near term as the market navigates these competing pressures.

Tech weakness and ECB rate decision set the tone. Fri, 17 Jul 2026 13:28:44 -0500
The upcoming week tests global markets as the recent 3% drop in the Nasdaq-100 risks pulling broader indices lower. With the Dow and Russell already extending their consecutive weekly declines, investors are closely watching to see if capital rotates back into technology or if the selling pressure persists. Across the Atlantic, the ECB's rate decision and Christine Lagarde's press conference take center stage. Diverging monetary policy narratives between the ECB and the Fed could spark significant volatility across European and U.S. equities, gold, and the U.S. dollar.

10-Year Treasury Note futures fell on crude and hawkish Fed. Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:09:43 -0500
KKM Financial's Dan Deming analyzes the recent pullback in 10-Year Treasury Note futures, which fell today after coming off a seven-session closing high. Deming details how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and WTI Crude Oil futures holding near monthly highs around $80 are fueling inflation concerns and putting selling pressure on Treasury markets. Additionally, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve speakers and in-line retail sales data contributed to the sell-off. Deming breaks down the yield curve, noting that the 10-Year Treasury yield rose 2 bps to 265.5 bps, with the short end of the curve seeing the strongest selling pressure as yields climbed across the board.