At-a-Glance
Today’s Top Highlights
Markets across the board today saw lower intraday volatility relative to the last few days of trading as many may be waiting for the big data day that is coming tomorrow to wrap up the week. The equities broadly saw light selling pressure with the Dow leading the selling trading down just under 1% on the day. The only piece of economic data released was the initial jobless claims report that came in better than expected, but this did not have any major effect on volatility. The only market that saw significant movement today was Crude Oil which spiked by about 3%, but even that figure is not uncommon with the recent price action we have seen in the oil market.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, there are a few key reports coming out that could spark additional volatility, looking at Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. One main topic lately has been the potential changing interest rate environment, and looking at the FedWatch Tool, it seems that may start to happen at the September meeting. As of today, the market is pricing in about a 54% chance that rates will see a 25 basis point hike at the September meeting and will remain there for the rest of 2026. Some of the data being released directly impacts these probabilities, and with the September meeting being only about a 54% probability, there is room for vast changes ahead of the report.
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